Biotech pipeline breadth - paper portfolio - 2026-10-22 update
📌 Snapshot of the Oct 22, 2026 update (orders for the next open). Always-current page with the full portfolio and daily log →
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-22 · started at the next open · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$1,000,000
Since start
+0.0%
XBI (price)
+0.0%
SPY (total return)
+0.0%
vs XBI
+0.00%
Holdings
0
Cash
$1,000,000
Next formation
2026-12-31
Rules (locked 2026-10-23, backtest): four times a year, at the last trading session of March, June, September and December, count for every eligible US-listed biotech (the research universe; big pharma, CROs and SPAC shells excluded) its pipeline breadth B = the number of its own industry-sponsored, interventional phase 2, 2/3 or 3 trials that are recruiting, active not recruiting, enrolling by invitation or not yet recruiting on ClinicalTrials.gov (latest complete AACT monthly snapshot dated on or before that day). Hold every company with B ≥ 3 in equal weight from the next session's open until the next quarter's rebalance. Costs 0.5% per side on traded dollars; dividends credited; a stock that stops trading (delisting / takeover) becomes cash at its last close. Start $1,000,000. Benchmarks: XBI (price only; its ~0.25%/yr distribution is not added) and SPY total return from the same first open. The first list is the 2026-09-30 one, bought at the open after the book started (2026-10-23).
Orders for the next open (2026-10-23) - 2026-09-30 list
68 companies with B ≥ 3 of 262 eligible (AACT snapshot 2026-09-01, biotech panel 2026-09-25). B distribution of the eligible: 0: 91, 1: 57, 2: 46, 3-4: 38, 5-9: 25, 10+: 5. Each about $14,706 (equal weight of the account at the open, 0.5% cost on traded dollars).
| Ticker | Company | B | Mkt cap | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNDA | Vanda Pharmaceuticals | 15 | $0.3B | buy |
| IBRX | ImmunityBio | 13 | $8.9B | buy |
| IONS | IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS | 13 | $7.4B | buy |
| AGIO | AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS | 11 | $1.9B | buy |
| RARE | Ultragenyx | 10 | $1.4B | buy |
| IMVT | Immunovant | 9 | $6.9B | buy |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | 9 | $3.6B | buy |
| ARWR | ARROWHEAD | 8 | $9.3B | buy |
| ALKS | Alkermes | 8 | $6.9B | buy |
| MIRM | Mirum Pharmaceuticals | 8 | $5.8B | buy |
| TGTX | TG THERAPEUTICS | 7 | $8.8B | buy |
| PRAX | Praxis Precision | 7 | $7.8B | buy |
| NUVB | Nuvation Bio | 7 | $2.0B | buy |
| BHVN | Biohaven | 7 | $2.0B | buy |
| VSTM | Verastem | 7 | $0.7B | buy |
| PTCT | PTC THERAPEUTICS | 6 | $5.2B | buy |
| EWTX | Edgewise Therapeutics | 6 | $4.3B | buy |
| ACAD | ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS | 6 | $3.6B | buy |
| NAMS | NewAmsterdam Pharma | 6 | $2.7B | buy |
| CLDX | Celldex Therapeutics | 6 | $2.4B | buy |
| ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | 6 | $1.8B | buy |
| CYTK | CYTOKINETICS | 5 | $9.0B | buy |
| ORKA | Oruka Therapeutics | 5 | $5.6B | buy |
| IOVA | IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS | 5 | $5.0B | buy |
| RCUS | Arcus Biosciences | 5 | $3.2B | buy |
| SUPN | SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS | 5 | $2.5B | buy |
| PVLA | PALVELLA THERAPEUTICS | 5 | $2.0B | buy |
| REPL | Replimune Group | 5 | $1.2B | buy |
| MLTX | MoonLake | 5 | $1.0B | buy |
| CADL | Candel Therapeutics | 5 | $0.8B | buy |
| PCVX | Vaxcyte | 4 | $8.4B | buy |
| SYRE | Spyre Therapeutics | 4 | $7.6B | buy |
| RYTM | RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS | 4 | $6.8B | buy |
| LQDA | Liquidia | 4 | $6.1B | buy |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics | 4 | $5.6B | buy |
| DNTH | Dianthus Therapeutics | 4 | $5.0B | buy |
| MANE | Veradermics | 4 | $4.9B | buy |
| IRON | Disc Medicine | 4 | $2.5B | buy |
| VERA | Vera Therapeutics | 4 | $2.3B | buy |
| OCUL | OCULAR THERAPEUTIX | 4 | $2.1B | buy |
| KOD | Kodiak Sciences | 4 | $2.0B | buy |
| SRPT | Sarepta Therapeutics | 4 | $2.0B | buy |
| NKTR | NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS | 4 | $1.9B | buy |
| VIR | Vir Biotechnology | 4 | $1.8B | buy |
| RAPP | Rapport Therapeutics | 4 | $1.6B | buy |
| ANRO | Alto Neuroscience | 4 | $1.0B | buy |
| FDMT | 4D Molecular | 4 | $0.8B | buy |
| MPLT | MapLight Therapeutics | 4 | $0.4B | buy |
| TARA | Protara Therapeutics | 4 | $0.2B | buy |
| KYMR | Kymera Therapeutics | 3 | $9.3B | buy |
| CGON | CG Oncology | 3 | $6.0B | buy |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock | 3 | $5.9B | buy |
| COGT | Cogent Biosciences | 3 | $5.6B | buy |
| IDYA | IDEAYA Biosciences | 3 | $3.5B | buy |
| DNLI | Denali Therapeutics | 3 | $3.3B | buy |
| VRDN | Viridian Therapeutics | 3 | $2.3B | buy |
| URGN | UroGen Pharma | 3 | $2.0B | buy |
| NTLA | Intellia Therapeutics | 3 | $1.6B | buy |
| SNDX | Syndax Pharmaceuticals | 3 | $1.6B | buy |
| OMER | OMEROS | 3 | $1.5B | buy |
| TYRA | Tyra Biosciences | 3 | $1.3B | buy |
| LBRX | LB PHARMACEUTICALS | 3 | $1.2B | buy |
| ALMS | ALUMIS | 3 | $0.9B | buy |
| ARDX | ARDELYX | 3 | $0.9B | buy |
| PBYI | PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY | 3 | $0.5B | buy |
| RGNX | REGENXBIO | 3 | $0.5B | buy |
| EIKN | Eikon Therapeutics | 3 | $0.4B | buy |
| IMUX | IMMUNIC | 3 | $0.4B | buy |
Backtest (2018-2026)
Backtest 2018-2026 (pre-registered, but an in-sample confirmation: the breadth effect was found in these same years by earlier studies): 12.6% a year after costs vs XBI 6.8% and a size-matched low-breadth control -4.6%; worst fall -61% vs XBI -64%. The edge is mostly 2022-26 (15.7% vs XBI 6.6%); in 2018-21 it was 8.7% vs 7.1% - close to XBI. Quarterly P minus control +4.4% (t 2.9). This paper book is the out-of-sample test. Not investment advice.

Backtest summary page (results tables and the pre-registered pass test).
Data: AACT monthly snapshots of ClinicalTrials.gov (sponsor names mapped to companies point-in-time), Massive daily bars and dividends, SEC-based biotech universe and weekly eligibility panel. Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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