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Biotech pipeline breadth - paper portfolio - 2026-10-22 update

by daily-log-of-system-trading

📌 Snapshot of the Oct 22, 2026 update (orders for the next open). Always-current page with the full portfolio and daily log →
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-22 · started at the next open · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$1,000,000
Since start
+0.0%
XBI (price)
+0.0%
SPY (total return)
+0.0%
vs XBI
+0.00%
Holdings
0
Cash
$1,000,000
Next formation
2026-12-31
Rules (locked 2026-10-23, backtest): four times a year, at the last trading session of March, June, September and December, count for every eligible US-listed biotech (the research universe; big pharma, CROs and SPAC shells excluded) its pipeline breadth B = the number of its own industry-sponsored, interventional phase 2, 2/3 or 3 trials that are recruiting, active not recruiting, enrolling by invitation or not yet recruiting on ClinicalTrials.gov (latest complete AACT monthly snapshot dated on or before that day). Hold every company with B ≥ 3 in equal weight from the next session's open until the next quarter's rebalance. Costs 0.5% per side on traded dollars; dividends credited; a stock that stops trading (delisting / takeover) becomes cash at its last close. Start $1,000,000. Benchmarks: XBI (price only; its ~0.25%/yr distribution is not added) and SPY total return from the same first open. The first list is the 2026-09-30 one, bought at the open after the book started (2026-10-23).

Orders for the next open (2026-10-23) - 2026-09-30 list

68 companies with B ≥ 3 of 262 eligible (AACT snapshot 2026-09-01, biotech panel 2026-09-25). B distribution of the eligible: 0: 91, 1: 57, 2: 46, 3-4: 38, 5-9: 25, 10+: 5. Each about $14,706 (equal weight of the account at the open, 0.5% cost on traded dollars).

TickerCompanyBMkt capAction
VNDAVanda Pharmaceuticals15$0.3Bbuy
IBRXImmunityBio13$8.9Bbuy
IONSIONIS PHARMACEUTICALS13$7.4Bbuy
AGIOAGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS11$1.9Bbuy
RAREUltragenyx10$1.4Bbuy
IMVTImmunovant9$6.9Bbuy
XENEXenon Pharmaceuticals9$3.6Bbuy
ARWRARROWHEAD8$9.3Bbuy
ALKSAlkermes8$6.9Bbuy
MIRMMirum Pharmaceuticals8$5.8Bbuy
TGTXTG THERAPEUTICS7$8.8Bbuy
PRAXPraxis Precision7$7.8Bbuy
NUVBNuvation Bio7$2.0Bbuy
BHVNBiohaven7$2.0Bbuy
VSTMVerastem7$0.7Bbuy
PTCTPTC THERAPEUTICS6$5.2Bbuy
EWTXEdgewise Therapeutics6$4.3Bbuy
ACADACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS6$3.6Bbuy
NAMSNewAmsterdam Pharma6$2.7Bbuy
CLDXCelldex Therapeutics6$2.4Bbuy
ZBIOZenas BioPharma6$1.8Bbuy
CYTKCYTOKINETICS5$9.0Bbuy
ORKAOruka Therapeutics5$5.6Bbuy
IOVAIOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS5$5.0Bbuy
RCUSArcus Biosciences5$3.2Bbuy
SUPNSUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS5$2.5Bbuy
PVLAPALVELLA THERAPEUTICS5$2.0Bbuy
REPLReplimune Group5$1.2Bbuy
MLTXMoonLake5$1.0Bbuy
CADLCandel Therapeutics5$0.8Bbuy
PCVXVaxcyte4$8.4Bbuy
SYRESpyre Therapeutics4$7.6Bbuy
RYTMRHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS4$6.8Bbuy
LQDALiquidia4$6.1Bbuy
TVTXTravere Therapeutics4$5.6Bbuy
DNTHDianthus Therapeutics4$5.0Bbuy
MANEVeradermics4$4.9Bbuy
IRONDisc Medicine4$2.5Bbuy
VERAVera Therapeutics4$2.3Bbuy
OCULOCULAR THERAPEUTIX4$2.1Bbuy
KODKodiak Sciences4$2.0Bbuy
SRPTSarepta Therapeutics4$2.0Bbuy
NKTRNEKTAR THERAPEUTICS4$1.9Bbuy
VIRVir Biotechnology4$1.8Bbuy
RAPPRapport Therapeutics4$1.6Bbuy
ANROAlto Neuroscience4$1.0Bbuy
FDMT4D Molecular4$0.8Bbuy
MPLTMapLight Therapeutics4$0.4Bbuy
TARAProtara Therapeutics4$0.2Bbuy
KYMRKymera Therapeutics3$9.3Bbuy
CGONCG Oncology3$6.0Bbuy
SRRKScholar Rock3$5.9Bbuy
COGTCogent Biosciences3$5.6Bbuy
IDYAIDEAYA Biosciences3$3.5Bbuy
DNLIDenali Therapeutics3$3.3Bbuy
VRDNViridian Therapeutics3$2.3Bbuy
URGNUroGen Pharma3$2.0Bbuy
NTLAIntellia Therapeutics3$1.6Bbuy
SNDXSyndax Pharmaceuticals3$1.6Bbuy
OMEROMEROS3$1.5Bbuy
TYRATyra Biosciences3$1.3Bbuy
LBRXLB PHARMACEUTICALS3$1.2Bbuy
ALMSALUMIS3$0.9Bbuy
ARDXARDELYX3$0.9Bbuy
PBYIPUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY3$0.5Bbuy
RGNXREGENXBIO3$0.5Bbuy
EIKNEikon Therapeutics3$0.4Bbuy
IMUXIMMUNIC3$0.4Bbuy

Backtest (2018-2026)

Backtest 2018-2026 (pre-registered, but an in-sample confirmation: the breadth effect was found in these same years by earlier studies): 12.6% a year after costs vs XBI 6.8% and a size-matched low-breadth control -4.6%; worst fall -61% vs XBI -64%. The edge is mostly 2022-26 (15.7% vs XBI 6.6%); in 2018-21 it was 8.7% vs 7.1% - close to XBI. Quarterly P minus control +4.4% (t 2.9). This paper book is the out-of-sample test. Not investment advice.

Pipeline breadth backtest chart

Backtest summary page (results tables and the pre-registered pass test).

Data: AACT monthly snapshots of ClinicalTrials.gov (sponsor names mapped to companies point-in-time), Massive daily bars and dividends, SEC-based biotech universe and weekly eligibility panel. Not investment advice.

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