Biotech pipeline breadth - paper portfolio (daily)
Order-day posts: Oct 22
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-23 · started 2026-10-23 · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$979,090
Since start
-2.1%
XBI (price)
-0.6%
SPY (total return)
+0.0%
vs XBI
-1.49%
Holdings
68
Cash
$0
Next formation
2026-12-31
Rules (locked 2026-10-23, backtest): four times a year, at the last trading session of March, June, September and December, count for every eligible US-listed biotech (the research universe; big pharma, CROs and SPAC shells excluded) its pipeline breadth B = the number of its own industry-sponsored, interventional phase 2, 2/3 or 3 trials that are recruiting, active not recruiting, enrolling by invitation or not yet recruiting on ClinicalTrials.gov (latest complete AACT monthly snapshot dated on or before that day). Hold every company with B ≥ 3 in equal weight from the next session's open until the next quarter's rebalance. Costs 0.5% per side on traded dollars; dividends credited; a stock that stops trading (delisting / takeover) becomes cash at its last close. Start $1,000,000. Benchmarks: XBI (price only; its ~0.25%/yr distribution is not added) and SPY total return from the same first open. The first list is the 2026-09-30 one, bought at the open after the book started (2026-10-23).
Holdings (68) - 2026-09-30 list
| Ticker | Company | B | Bought | Entry | Last | Value | Weight | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNDA | Vanda Pharmaceuticals | 15 | 2026-10-23 | $4.04 | $4.01 | $14,524 | 1.5% | -0.7% |
| IBRX | ImmunityBio | 13 | 2026-10-23 | $8.21 | $8.22 | $14,650 | 1.5% | +0.1% |
| IONS | IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS | 13 | 2026-10-23 | $43.80 | $42.93 | $14,342 | 1.5% | -2.0% |
| AGIO | AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS | 11 | 2026-10-23 | $36.93 | $37.00 | $14,660 | 1.5% | +0.2% |
| RARE | Ultragenyx | 10 | 2026-10-23 | $15.92 | $15.65 | $14,384 | 1.5% | -1.7% |
| IMVT | Immunovant | 9 | 2026-10-23 | $28.93 | $28.41 | $14,369 | 1.5% | -1.8% |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | 9 | 2026-10-23 | $36.62 | $35.34 | $14,121 | 1.4% | -3.5% |
| ALKS | Alkermes | 8 | 2026-10-23 | $44.15 | $43.63 | $14,460 | 1.5% | -1.2% |
| ARWR | ARROWHEAD | 8 | 2026-10-23 | $58.15 | $58.02 | $14,600 | 1.5% | -0.2% |
| MIRM | Mirum Pharmaceuticals | 8 | 2026-10-23 | $82.39 | $80.39 | $14,277 | 1.5% | -2.4% |
| BHVN | Biohaven | 7 | 2026-10-23 | $15.21 | $13.88 | $13,348 | 1.4% | -8.8% |
| NUVB | Nuvation Bio | 7 | 2026-10-23 | $4.62 | $4.57 | $14,474 | 1.5% | -1.1% |
| PRAX | Praxis Precision | 7 | 2026-10-23 | $256.89 | $252.96 | $14,409 | 1.5% | -1.5% |
| TGTX | TG THERAPEUTICS | 7 | 2026-10-23 | $52.56 | $54.17 | $15,081 | 1.5% | +3.1% |
| VSTM | Verastem | 7 | 2026-10-23 | $10.09 | $10.04 | $14,567 | 1.5% | -0.4% |
| ACAD | ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS | 6 | 2026-10-23 | $20.22 | $19.73 | $14,278 | 1.5% | -2.4% |
| CLDX | Celldex Therapeutics | 6 | 2026-10-23 | $28.95 | $29.25 | $14,784 | 1.5% | +1.0% |
| EWTX | Edgewise Therapeutics | 6 | 2026-10-23 | $39.91 | $39.31 | $14,412 | 1.5% | -1.5% |
| NAMS | NewAmsterdam Pharma | 6 | 2026-10-23 | $21.39 | $19.71 | $13,483 | 1.4% | -7.9% |
| PTCT | PTC THERAPEUTICS | 6 | 2026-10-23 | $62.30 | $60.59 | $14,231 | 1.5% | -2.7% |
| ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | 6 | 2026-10-23 | $28.00 | $26.87 | $14,042 | 1.4% | -4.0% |
| CADL | Candel Therapeutics | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $8.33 | $8.03 | $14,105 | 1.4% | -3.6% |
| CYTK | CYTOKINETICS | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $62.01 | $61.23 | $14,448 | 1.5% | -1.3% |
| IOVA | IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $14.19 | $14.09 | $14,534 | 1.5% | -0.7% |
| MLTX | MoonLake | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $12.07 | $11.85 | $14,366 | 1.5% | -1.8% |
| ORKA | Oruka Therapeutics | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $81.15 | $80.15 | $14,452 | 1.5% | -1.2% |
| PVLA | PALVELLA THERAPEUTICS | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $124.60 | $125.10 | $14,691 | 1.5% | +0.4% |
| RCUS | Arcus Biosciences | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $19.02 | $18.54 | $14,263 | 1.5% | -2.5% |
| REPL | Replimune Group | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $11.92 | $11.46 | $14,068 | 1.4% | -3.9% |
| SUPN | SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS | 5 | 2026-10-23 | $41.68 | $40.70 | $14,288 | 1.5% | -2.4% |
| ANRO | Alto Neuroscience | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $21.95 | $21.97 | $14,646 | 1.5% | +0.1% |
| DNTH | Dianthus Therapeutics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $76.03 | $76.78 | $14,777 | 1.5% | +1.0% |
| FDMT | 4D Molecular | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $11.74 | $10.80 | $13,461 | 1.4% | -8.0% |
| IRON | Disc Medicine | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $74.29 | $74.51 | $14,676 | 1.5% | +0.3% |
| KOD | Kodiak Sciences | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $85.13 | $87.63 | $15,062 | 1.5% | +2.9% |
| LQDA | Liquidia | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $39.86 | $42.65 | $15,657 | 1.6% | +7.0% |
| MANE | Veradermics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $139.44 | $138.78 | $14,563 | 1.5% | -0.5% |
| MPLT | MapLight Therapeutics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $8.18 | $7.97 | $14,257 | 1.5% | -2.6% |
| NKTR | NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $37.87 | $37.22 | $14,381 | 1.5% | -1.7% |
| OCUL | OCULAR THERAPEUTIX | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $6.68 | $6.50 | $14,238 | 1.5% | -2.7% |
| PCVX | Vaxcyte | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $62.35 | $60.43 | $14,182 | 1.4% | -3.1% |
| RAPP | Rapport Therapeutics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $27.54 | $25.93 | $13,777 | 1.4% | -5.8% |
| RYTM | RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $90.44 | $89.27 | $14,443 | 1.5% | -1.3% |
| SRPT | Sarepta Therapeutics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $17.94 | $17.73 | $14,461 | 1.5% | -1.2% |
| SYRE | Spyre Therapeutics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $90.70 | $90.33 | $14,572 | 1.5% | -0.4% |
| TARA | Protara Therapeutics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $2.39 | $2.33 | $14,265 | 1.5% | -2.5% |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $52.00 | $50.08 | $14,092 | 1.4% | -3.7% |
| VERA | Vera Therapeutics | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $28.75 | $27.99 | $14,246 | 1.5% | -2.6% |
| VIR | Vir Biotechnology | 4 | 2026-10-23 | $10.36 | $10.57 | $14,929 | 1.5% | +2.0% |
| ALMS | ALUMIS | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $6.68 | $6.78 | $14,851 | 1.5% | +1.5% |
| ARDX | ARDELYX | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $3.17 | $3.08 | $14,217 | 1.5% | -2.8% |
| CGON | CG Oncology | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $62.36 | $61.71 | $14,480 | 1.5% | -1.0% |
| COGT | Cogent Biosciences | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $30.94 | $31.21 | $14,760 | 1.5% | +0.9% |
| DNLI | Denali Therapeutics | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $18.49 | $18.41 | $14,569 | 1.5% | -0.4% |
| EIKN | Eikon Therapeutics | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $8.07 | $7.26 | $13,164 | 1.3% | -10.0% |
| IDYA | IDEAYA Biosciences | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $36.35 | $34.71 | $13,972 | 1.4% | -4.5% |
| IMUX | IMMUNIC | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $7.41 | $7.41 | $14,632 | 1.5% | +0.0% |
| KYMR | Kymera Therapeutics | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $110.85 | $110.76 | $14,620 | 1.5% | -0.1% |
| LBRX | LB PHARMACEUTICALS | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $39.25 | $38.73 | $14,438 | 1.5% | -1.3% |
| NTLA | Intellia Therapeutics | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $11.00 | $11.21 | $14,912 | 1.5% | +1.9% |
| OMER | OMEROS | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $16.80 | $16.57 | $14,432 | 1.5% | -1.4% |
| PBYI | PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $11.25 | $11.02 | $14,333 | 1.5% | -2.0% |
| RGNX | REGENXBIO | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $7.03 | $6.68 | $13,904 | 1.4% | -5.0% |
| SNDX | Syndax Pharmaceuticals | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $13.60 | $13.40 | $14,417 | 1.5% | -1.5% |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $41.58 | $41.49 | $14,601 | 1.5% | -0.2% |
| TYRA | Tyra Biosciences | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $20.85 | $20.45 | $14,352 | 1.5% | -1.9% |
| URGN | UroGen Pharma | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $34.44 | $34.49 | $14,654 | 1.5% | +0.1% |
| VRDN | Viridian Therapeutics | 3 | 2026-10-23 | $22.75 | $22.37 | $14,388 | 1.5% | -1.7% |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | XBI | SPY | Holdings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | $979,090 | -2.1% | -0.6% | +0.0% | 68 |
| Rebalance: traded $1,000,000, cost $5,000 Bought: VNDA, IBRX, IONS, AGIO, RARE, IMVT, XENE, ARWR, ALKS, MIRM, TGTX, PRAX, NUVB, BHVN, VSTM, PTCT, EWTX, ACAD, NAMS, CLDX, ZBIO, CYTK, ORKA, IOVA, RCUS, SUPN, PVLA, REPL, MLTX, CADL, PCVX, SYRE, RYTM, LQDA, TVTX, DNTH, MANE, IRON, VERA, OCUL, KOD, SRPT, NKTR, VIR, RAPP, ANRO, FDMT, MPLT, TARA, KYMR, CGON, SRRK, COGT, IDYA, DNLI, VRDN, URGN, NTLA, SNDX, OMER, TYRA, LBRX, ALMS, ARDX, PBYI, RGNX, EIKN, IMUX | |||||
Rebalances
| Formation | Executed | Names | Traded | Cost | AACT snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-23 | 68 | $1,000,000 | $5,000 | 2026-09-01 |
Backtest (2018-2026)
Backtest 2018-2026 (pre-registered, but an in-sample confirmation: the breadth effect was found in these same years by earlier studies): 12.6% a year after costs vs XBI 6.8% and a size-matched low-breadth control -4.6%; worst fall -61% vs XBI -64%. The edge is mostly 2022-26 (15.7% vs XBI 6.6%); in 2018-21 it was 8.7% vs 7.1% - close to XBI. Quarterly P minus control +4.4% (t 2.9). This paper book is the out-of-sample test. Not investment advice.
Backtest summary page (results tables and the pre-registered pass test).
Data: AACT monthly snapshots of ClinicalTrials.gov (sponsor names mapped to companies point-in-time), Massive daily bars and dividends, SEC-based biotech universe and weekly eligibility panel. Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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