Sector red-day strategy - paper portfolio (daily)
Order-day posts: Oct 22
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-23 · started 2026-10-21 · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$985,121
Since start
-1.5%
SPY since start (TR)
-1.5%
vs SPY
-0.04%
In stock lots
10.0% (cap 30%)
Open lots
11
Closed lots
0
Rules (locked 2026-10-21, backtest): $1,000,000 starts fully in SPY. When a sector ETF (SOXX, IGV, KBE, IBB, XLE, GDX, ITB, XRT, IHI, IYR, KIE, XLU, XLC or a SPDR sector ETF) closes down 3% or more on the day (total return), the S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100 stocks mapped to that ETF (SEC industry code) are ranked by that day's return; if there are at least 5, the weakest fifth is bought at the next open: one tranche of 10% of the account per trigger day, split equally over the names of all ETFs triggered that day (at most 50, drawn at random if more). All stock lots together are capped at 30% of the account (a tranche is cut to the room left, skipped when there is none). Each lot is sold at the open of its 120th trading session and the money goes back to SPY. Dividends credited; costs 0.1% per side on stock trades. Benchmark: SPY total return from the same start.
Sector ETFs on 2026-10-23
No sector ETF closed down 3% or more. Weakest: KIE -2.3%, XLP -1.9%, GDX -1.8%, XLC -1.8%, XLY -1.7%
All sector ETFs (day, total return): KIE -2.3% · XLP -1.9% · GDX -1.8% · XLC -1.8% · XLY -1.7% · XRT -1.6% · XLF -1.3% · XLI -1.3% · XLV -1.1% · IBB -0.9% · XLB -0.7% · ITB -0.7% · XLU -0.7% · IYR +0.0% · KBE +0.1% · IHI +0.1% · XLK +0.5% · SOXX +0.5% · IGV +1.7% · XLE +2.6%
Orders for the next open (2026-10-26)
Buy: none
Sell: none
Open lots (11)
| Ticker | ETF | Entry | Entry px | Last | Value | Return | Days left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALAB | SOXX | 2026-10-23 | $259.51 | $257.16 | $8,915 | -1.0% | 120 |
| FLEX | SOXX | 2026-10-23 | $76.22 | $76.55 | $9,036 | +0.3% | 120 |
| MPWR | SOXX | 2026-10-23 | $1,156.39 | $1,140.12 | $8,870 | -1.5% | 120 |
| Q | SOXX | 2026-10-23 | $108.00 | $109.83 | $9,149 | +1.6% | 120 |
| CIEN | XLK | 2026-10-23 | $325.95 | $320.26 | $8,840 | -1.8% | 120 |
| COHR | XLK | 2026-10-23 | $207.85 | $209.29 | $9,059 | +0.6% | 120 |
| KEYS | XLK | 2026-10-23 | $308.25 | $314.77 | $9,187 | +2.0% | 120 |
| KLAC | XLK | 2026-10-23 | $147.51 | $145.61 | $8,881 | -1.4% | 120 |
| LITE | XLK | 2026-10-23 | $760.00 | $756.17 | $8,952 | -0.6% | 120 |
| SNDK | XLK | 2026-10-23 | $1,271.62 | $1,238.03 | $8,759 | -2.7% | 120 |
| TER | XLK | 2026-10-23 | $306.35 | $308.85 | $9,070 | +0.7% | 120 |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | SPY | Stocks | Lots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | $985,121 | -1.5% | -1.5% | 10% | 11 |
| Bought: ALAB, FLEX, Q, MPWR, COHR, LITE, CIEN, TER, KLAC, KEYS, SNDK | |||||
| 2026-10-22 | $990,651 | -0.9% | -0.9% | 0% | 0 |
| Triggers: SOXX -6.8%, GDX -5.8%, XLK -3.3% | |||||
| 2026-10-21 | $1,002,490 | +0.2% | +0.2% | 0% | 0 |
| No triggers, no trades | |||||
Research (redday_etf_v2, large caps 2005-2026, total return, 0.1% costs): this tilt with the 30% cap made 12.2% a year vs SPY 10.9% (2005-14: 8.5% vs 7.7%; 2015-26: 15.4% vs 13.6%), worst fall -62% vs -55%. Same data and years as the earlier tests - a robustness check, not an independent confirmation; the weakest-fifth effect was the only passing variant among many tried. Data: Massive daily bars and dividends, index membership point-in-time. Backtest write-up. Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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