Short squeezes - can you see them coming? (US stocks 2018-2026)
The short answer
- There are patterns, but they only shift the odds. The best screen finds stocks where about 1 in 7 doubles within 3 months (versus 1 in 40 normally) - and the group as a whole still loses money.
- Volatility matters most. Calm stocks almost never double, however heavily shorted.
- Heavy trading, not 'days to cover'. Squeezes need volume; a high days-to-cover number predicted fewer squeezes.
- Two set-ups: a crushed stock far below its high, or a stock already running hard while shorts keep adding.
- Hot markets and a story. Most big squeezes came in two speculative waves (late 2020-early 2021, mid 2025) and had a theme: EV/clean energy, crypto, meme, quantum, AI, uranium, a biotech readout.
- The missing piece is float. GME and Avis (CAR) had huge short interest relative to the shares that actually trade, because insiders or a few funds held much of the stock. This data measures shorts against all shares.
1. How often a stock doubles within 3 months, by % shorted and company size
From the day each short-interest report is public. "Doubled" = the close reached 2x the starting close at any point in the next 3 months (63 trading days).
| Shorted | Reports | Doubled: under $300M | $300M-2B | over $2B | Tripled: over $2B | All sizes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 469,233 | 5.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 5-10% | 121,144 | 8.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| 10-15% | 44,417 | 10.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 4.4% |
| 15-20% | 18,262 | 10.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 5.5% |
| 20-30% | 10,837 | 10.4% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 6.9% |
| 30%+ | 3,875 | 9.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 0.5% | 7.3% |
2. Shorts plus volatility (companies over $300M)
Share that doubled within 3 months. Columns = volatility over the prior 60 days, in fifths from calmest to wildest. Short interest adds odds mainly when the stock is already very volatile.
| Shorted | Volatility 1 calm | Volatility 2 | Volatility 3 | Volatility 4 | Volatility 5 wild |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 5-10% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 4.2% |
| 10-15% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 5.8% |
| 15-20% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 7.3% |
| 20-30% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 8.7% |
| 30%+ | 0.0% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 8.1% |
3. Heavily shorted stocks (15%+): which ones doubled?
32,974 reports; 6.2% doubled within 3 months. Each row splits them into fifths by one measure, lowest to highest; small grey number = typical value in that fifth.
| Measure | Lowest fifth | 2 | 3 | 4 | Highest fifth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return over the past 3 months | 10.8% -46% | 4.8% -21% | 4.4% -6% | 4.0% +12% | 7.0% +51% |
| Distance below 52-week high | 11.6% -81% | 6.5% -60% | 4.6% -43% | 4.5% -27% | 3.8% -8% |
| Daily volume as % of shares | 3.3% 1% | 4.0% 2% | 5.2% 2% | 6.8% 4% | 11.7% 11% |
| Volume last month vs prior 6 months | 5.8% 0.6 | 5.2% 0.8 | 5.5% 1.0 | 5.6% 1.2 | 8.9% 1.7 |
| Days to cover | 10.9% 2.0 | 6.9% 5.5 | 5.0% 8.7 | 4.3% 12.8 | 3.9% 21.4 |
| Change in short interest over 3 months | 6.1% -17% | 5.8% -2% | 5.2% +9% | 6.1% +24% | 8.5% +82% |
| % of shares shorted | 5.2% 16% | 5.7% 17% | 5.9% 19% | 6.7% 23% | 7.5% 31% |
| Company size | 10.8% $101M | 6.9% $411M | 5.4% $829M | 4.5% $1.6B | 3.5% $3.4B |
| Volatility | 0.8% 37% | 2.7% 54% | 5.8% 70% | 8.8% 91% | 12.9% 144% |
| Small-cap index, past 3 months | 9.0% -11% | 4.3% -2% | 5.6% +4% | 4.4% +8% | 7.7% +14% |
4. Can a model call it in advance?
Gradient-boosted trees on the measures above, retrained each year only on earlier years. AUC = how well it ranks the stocks that doubled above those that did not (0.5 = coin flip, 1.0 = perfect).
| Year | Doubled (any stock) | AUC model | AUC % shorted alone |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5.9% | 0.82 | 0.59 |
| 2021 | 1.5% | 0.85 | 0.53 |
| 2022 | 1.6% | 0.87 | 0.60 |
| 2023 | 1.8% | 0.90 | 0.61 |
| 2024 | 2.0% | 0.89 | 0.61 |
| 2025 | 3.3% | 0.87 | 0.62 |
| 2026 | 3.3% | 0.82 | 0.60 |
| Picked each month | Reports | Doubled within 3m | Tripled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1% by model | 5,283 | 15.3% | 5.1% |
| Top 1% most shorted | 5,283 | 8.7% | 2.6% |
| Everything | 524,128 | 2.7% | 0.7% |
The model mostly finds volatile, cheap stocks - which double more often for any reason, not only squeezes. And the price of the lottery ticket is high: stocks 20%+ shorted and in the most volatile fifth had a median 3-month return of -12%, and 15% halved.
5. Famous squeezes: the last report before the run
| Case | Report public | Peak within 3m | Shorted | Days to cover | Past 3m | Below 52w high | Rank by % shorted | Rank by model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GME | 2020-12-14 | 27.3x | 97% | 8.7 | +79% | -25% | top 0.0% | top 16.5% |
| AMC | 2021-05-14 | 4.8x | 19% | 2.4 | +132% | -35% | top 1.0% | top 0.3% |
| Bed Bath (BBBY) | 2022-07-14 | 4.9x | 27% | 1.9 | -74% | -84% | top 0.5% | top 1.6% |
| Bed Bath (BBBY) 2021 | 2020-12-29 | 2.8x | 58% | 10.5 | +30% | -26% | top 0.1% | top 51.8% |
| Avis (CAR) 2021 | 2021-09-14 | 4.0x | 17% | 8.7 | -1% | -5% | top 1.7% | top 24.8% |
| Avis (CAR) 2026 | 2026-02-27 | 7.3x | 21% | 13.5 | -27% | -53% | top 3.0% | top 31.9% |
| Overstock 2020 | 2020-03-27 | 6.7x | 17% | 5.5 | -24% | -81% | top 5.0% | top 3.5% |
| Upstart 2023 | 2023-04-28 | 4.9x | 32% | 5.8 | -28% | -85% | top 0.2% | top 5.4% |
GME was the most shorted stock in the market - but the model ranked it only in its top 17%, and both Avis squeezes were outside its top 20%. Avis is the float story: two funds held most of the shares, so ~20% of all shares was a far larger share of what actually traded.
6. Every 3x squeeze in a company over $1B (42)
15%+ shorted at the report, close reached 3x within 3 months. First report per episode.
| Ticker | Report public | Peak | Shorted | Days to cover | Past 3m | Below 52w high | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN | 2020-05-14 | 3.4x | 15% | 9.6 | -34% | -40% | $1.7B |
| PLUG | 2020-05-29 | 3.2x | 22% | 7.8 | -3% | -26% | $1.4B |
| SRNE | 2020-06-29 | 3.1x | 20% | 1.5 | +230% | -10% | $1.3B |
| NTLA | 2020-10-14 | 3.4x | 20% | 15.4 | +15% | -6% | $1.5B |
| PLUG | 2020-10-14 | 4.0x | 17% | 3.0 | +91% | -6% | $6.3B |
| MAC | 2020-10-29 | 3.3x | 52% | 28.3 | -11% | -77% | $1.0B |
| JWN | 2020-10-29 | 3.2x | 31% | 6.1 | -11% | -71% | $1.9B |
| ARVN | 2020-11-13 | 3.6x | 15% | 14.8 | -7% | -55% | $1.0B |
| EDIT | 2020-11-13 | 3.1x | 18% | 17.1 | -20% | -21% | $1.8B |
| TLRY | 2020-11-13 | 8.4x | 20% | 3.2 | +8% | -66% | $1.0B |
| DDD | 2020-11-27 | 6.5x | 31% | 10.9 | +59% | -31% | $1.1B |
| FLGT | 2020-12-14 | 4.1x | 15% | 2.0 | +48% | -12% | $1.1B |
| GME | 2020-12-29 | 17.9x | 98% | 6.9 | +87% | -8% | $1.4B |
| MVIS | 2021-01-29 | 3.7x | 16% | 1.5 | +195% | -23% | $1.0B |
| RIOT | 2021-01-29 | 3.8x | 26% | 1.0 | +486% | -29% | $1.0B |
| AMC | 2021-05-14 | 4.8x | 19% | 2.4 | +132% | -35% | $5.8B |
| CAR | 2021-09-14 | 4.0x | 17% | 8.7 | -1% | -5% | $6.0B |
| GBT | 2022-06-14 | 3.1x | 17% | 9.1 | -23% | -45% | $1.5B |
| UPST | 2023-04-14 | 3.4x | 32% | 4.8 | -11% | -84% | $1.3B |
| MARA | 2023-09-29 | 3.7x | 30% | 1.9 | -39% | -56% | $1.5B |
| TGTX | 2023-10-13 | 3.2x | 22% | 9.0 | -69% | -81% | $1.0B |
| VKTX | 2023-11-29 | 8.0x | 17% | 9.2 | -13% | -52% | $1.2B |
| GME | 2024-02-14 | 3.4x | 20% | 20.7 | +19% | -47% | $4.4B |
| IONQ | 2024-08-14 | 3.4x | 16% | 7.6 | -21% | -63% | $1.6B |
| LMND | 2024-09-27 | 3.1x | 24% | 18.5 | +3% | -28% | $1.2B |
| SMCI | 2024-11-14 | 3.3x | 16% | 1.6 | -71% | -85% | $10.5B |
| APLD | 2025-04-29 | 3.1x | 29% | 1.8 | -31% | -58% | $1.0B |
| MP | 2025-05-14 | 3.6x | 19% | 3.1 | -13% | -24% | $3.4B |
| VSAT | 2025-05-29 | 3.5x | 20% | 12.2 | +6% | -62% | $1.2B |
| BE | 2025-06-13 | 3.1x | 20% | 11.2 | -10% | -26% | $5.1B |
| STEM | 2025-06-27 | 3.5x | 20% | 9.0 | -13% | -79% | $1.1B |
| UUUU | 2025-06-27 | 3.1x | 16% | 2.7 | +38% | -24% | $1.2B |
| RGTI | 2025-07-14 | 3.7x | 20% | 1.6 | +36% | -36% | $3.7B |
| CIFR | 2025-07-29 | 3.7x | 15% | 1.1 | +86% | -24% | $2.1B |
| EOSE | 2025-07-29 | 3.1x | 35% | 6.5 | +9% | -16% | $1.4B |
| OPEN | 2025-07-29 | 5.1x | 19% | 1.2 | +164% | -36% | $1.5B |
| AAOI | 2025-11-28 | 3.8x | 19% | 1.9 | +11% | -39% | $1.8B |
| CAR | 2026-01-14 | 3.6x | 25% | 14.1 | -21% | -41% | $4.3B |
| AEHR | 2026-03-13 | 3.3x | 16% | 3.6 | +38% | -19% | $1.1B |
| PENG | 2026-04-14 | 3.2x | 18% | 11.0 | +33% | -12% | $1.3B |
| WOLF | 2026-04-14 | 3.2x | 25% | 7.9 | +25% | -35% | $1.0B |
| INOD | 2026-04-29 | 3.0x | 16% | 5.4 | -28% | -57% | $1.3B |
After a doubling, short interest two months later was only modestly lower (median about -7%; it fell 30%+ in about 1 case in 6) - most of these rallies were theme rallies that hit shorted stocks, not shorts forced to buy back.
No redactions applied.
Published via wiis. Originals are encrypted at rest; this page reflects the redacted version. report abuse.
Discussion
No comments yet.