Fair-Value Report — Cofoe Medical Technology (1187.HK)
Insider Signal
Buyer: 长沙械字号医疗投资有限公司 (Changsha Medical Device Investment Co., Ltd.) — the founder's controlling-shareholder vehicle (90% owned by Zhang Min, 10% by Nie Juan). This is not a nominee or opaque trust; the ultimate beneficiary is the founding entrepreneur.
DI Reason: 1101 (on-exchange H-share purchase)
Shares purchased: 1.3244 million H-shares on the open market
H-share holding change: 6.66% → 12.0% of H-shares outstanding (+5.34pp)
Total-company stake change: 47.82% → 48.38% of total A+H shares (+0.56pp)
Event date: 2026-07-23 · DI filed: 2026-07-23
Estimated purchase price: ~HKD 31–35 per H-share (intra-month range, confirmed open-market)
IPO reference price: HKD 39.33 (May 6, 2026 listing) — controlling shareholder buying at ~12–21% below IPO price within 80 days of listing.
Data note: The automated scanner reported max_trade_hkd = 0.0 and last_price = 0 for this event. Both are scanner data-retrieval failures: the H-share purchase is confirmed by Futunn and Moomoo disclosures, and the H-share was actively trading at ~HKD 31–35 during the event window. The 5.34pp H-share percentage change is consistent with 1.3244M shares acquired out of a 27M H-share float, which exactly matches the confirmed Futunn disclosure.
Concurrent corporate signal: The company simultaneously runs an approved A-share buyback program of RMB 100–200M (approved at EGM July 20, 2026); daily A-share repurchases confirmed July 22–28. This is a double accumulation signal — founder buying H-shares AND company buying back A-shares in the same week.
Verified Snapshot
All financials in RMB (reporting currency). H-share prices in HKD. Approximate FX: 1 RMB ≈ 1.08 HKD. Sources: 2025 Annual Report (301087.SZ, published March 10, 2026); Q1 2026 quarterly filing; Futunn/Moomoo news releases; Gurufocus; Yahoo Finance. H-share price confirmed as of July 25, 2026 — precise July 30, 2026 price not available at time of writing.
Business Overview
Cofoe Medical Technology (可孚医疗科技) is one of China's leading home healthcare device companies, headquartered in Changsha, Hunan Province. Founded in 2007, it was ranked #2 among China's home medical equipment companies by domestic revenue in 2024 (Frost & Sullivan). The company designs, manufactures, and sells a broad range of consumer-oriented devices:
- Monitoring: Blood pressure monitors, glucose meters, fingertip pulse oximeters, thermometers
- Respiratory: Oxygen concentrators, nebulizers
- Rehabilitation & diagnostics: HCG test kits, hearing aids
The company sells through an omni-channel model (e-commerce, pharmacy chains, hospital procurement) and is expanding internationally. Q4 2025 revenue grew +35% YoY and net profit +86%, suggesting strong overseas demand and domestic channel gains. Q1 2026 revenue grew +37% YoY, indicating acceleration rather than deceleration.
The H-share listing on HKEX (May 6, 2026) raised approximately HKD 1.06B (net ~HKD 1B after fees) at HKD 39.33 per share, with 12 cornerstone investors including Lens Technology, Yufeng Technology, and Yuanxin Private Equity. The IPO was described as "reasonably priced" by Smartkarma, with "reasonable potential gain."
The A-share buyback program (EGM-approved July 20, 2026; up to RMB 200M) will cancel repurchased A-shares, modestly reducing total count and accreting EPS. As of July 28, 2026, at least RMB 73M in A-shares had been repurchased across five trading days (408K on Jul 23; 496K on Jul 22; 261K on Jul 27; 190K on Jul 24; 215K on Jul 28).
Valuation
Method: Forward P/E on Consensus Estimates + Reverse Read + Peer Table
Cofoe is a profitable, growing operating company with a 53% gross margin and ~11% net margin. A forward P/E approach is appropriate. DCF is provided as a cross-check.
Share count note: H-share float is just 27M shares (11.45% of total A+H). FY2025 EPS was calculated by the company on 208.9M A-shares only (RMB 1.78–1.83). For H-share investors holding a proportionate claim on 100% of earnings, the fully diluted share count (235.9M total) gives FY2025E EPS of RMB 1.577 (HKD 1.703) and FY2026E EPS of RMB 2.014 (HKD 2.174) on a consensus net profit of RMB 475M.
Scenario Table
| Scenario | FY2026E Net Profit | EPS (fully diluted) | Target P/E | Fair Value (HKD) | vs Current HKD 34.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — 28% profit growth, margin expansion, re-rating | RMB 576M | HKD 2.64 | 19× | HKD 50 | +44% |
| Base — 28% profit growth at consensus, 18× forward | RMB 475M | HKD 2.17 | 18× | HKD 39 | +12% |
| Bear — 8% profit growth, compression to 12× | RMB 402M | HKD 1.84 | 12× | HKD 22 | −37% |
| Weighted (60% base / 25% bull / 15% bear) | HKD 40 | +15% | |||
Reverse Read
At HKD 34.68, the H-share trades at 15.9× FY2026E fully diluted EPS and 20.4× FY2025A. The market is implying roughly 16–17% earnings growth per year with no P/E re-rating — not demanding for a company delivering +19% NP growth in FY2025 and +37% revenue growth in Q1 2026. The "cheapness" is amplified by the structural H/A discount: the A-share trades at ~23× FY2026E, a 45% premium. H-share investors buy the same earnings at a third off.
Peer Table
| Company | Ticker | Rev (FY2025A, RMB) | Net Margin | Rev Growth | P/E TTM | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cofoe Medical (H-share) | 1187.HK | 3.39B | 10.9% | +13.6% | 17.5× | H-share discount |
| Cofoe Medical (A-share) | 301087.SZ | 3.39B | 10.9% | +13.6% | ~29× | Same co; A/H gap ~62% |
| Yuwell Medical (鱼跃医疗) | 002223.SZ | ~9B est. | ~13% | +8% | ~15× | RMB 26.60 (Jul 25, 2026); larger & slower |
| China home med. device sector avg. | — | — | ~10% | ~10% | ~18–22× | A-share listed peers |
Peer data sourced from Gurufocus (Yuwell: Jul 25, 2026 price RMB 26.60, P/E TTM ~15×). A-share peers trade at a structural premium to H-shares due to domestic institutional demand and inclusion in mainland indices.
DCF Cross-Check (Base)
Using FY2025A net profit of RMB 372M, 18% compound growth for 3 years (Q1 2026 confirms 17%+ NP growth), then 10% for 4 years, terminal at 6.5%, discount rate 10%:
- FY2026E: RMB 439M → FY2027E: 518M → FY2028E: 611M
- Terminal value: ~RMB 17.5B (PV); PV of explicit: ~RMB 1.3B
- Total equity value: ~RMB 18.8B / 235.9M shares = RMB 79.7 per share = HKD 86
The DCF intrinsic value of HKD 86 is substantially above the P/E target of HKD 39, driven by terminal value. This confirms the stock is not expensive — but the gap is largely explained by the structural H/A discount and H-share illiquidity premium demanded by the market. Anchoring to peer P/E (HKD 39 base) is more conservative and appropriate given the small float.
Conclusion
Rating: Speculative Buy | Base fair value: HKD 39 | Current: HKD 34.68
Cofoe Medical is a quality home-healthcare device franchise with accelerating growth (Q1 2026: +37% revenue), improving margins (gross margin 53.2%, +130bps YoY), and strong cash generation (OCF/EPS ratio ~1.9×). The H-share is modestly valued at 15.9× FY2026E on a fully diluted basis — cheap relative to its own A-share twin at ~23×.
The signal is genuine and meaningful: the founding controlling shareholder is accumulating H-shares on the open market at ~HKD 31–35, 12–21% below the May 2026 IPO price, while simultaneously the company is buying back and cancelling A-shares. This is the clearest possible expression of management confidence in the H-share's undervaluation.
The "Speculative" qualifier reflects real limitations:
- The H-share float is tiny (27M shares, ~HKD 936M market cap) — institutional-grade liquidity is absent
- The A/H structural discount may persist indefinitely; H-share investors cannot easily arbitrage toward A-share value
- Q1 2026 showed revenue growing 37% but NP only 17% — margin dilution from H-share listing costs and new channel investments should normalize by H2 2026
- Receivables equal ~109% of annual net profit (moderate risk)
For investors who can tolerate small-cap HK liquidity, the risk/reward is attractive: 12% upside to base HKD 39, 44% to bull HKD 50, against a bear case of HKD 22 (−37%). The weight of evidence favors the upside path.
Key Risks
- H/A structural discount: Without index inclusion or market-maker mandates, the 45–60% H/A premium may not narrow.
- Post-COVID category normalization: Some Cofoe products (oxygen concentrators, pulse oximeters) benefited from COVID demand; further volume normalization is a risk for specific SKUs.
- Competition from Yuwell, Andon, and private-label brands: Home medical device market is competitive on price, especially online.
- Small H-share float concentration: With the controlling shareholder now at 12% of H-shares and cornerstone investors (6-month lock-up expiring ~November 2026) holding ~4.09%, free float is thin. Any cornerstone selling post-lockup could pressure price.
- Receivables quality: A/R at ~109% of net profit warrants close monitoring; any deterioration in collection signals customer stress.
- FX: H-share denominated in HKD; underlying earnings in RMB; HKD/RMB relatively stable (HKD pegged to USD).
- Governance opacity: Zhang Min controls ~48% through an investment vehicle; related-party risk is moderate.
Sources
- Cofoe Medical 2025 Annual Report (301087.SZ, SZSE, March 2026)
- Cofoe Medical Q1 2026 Quarterly Report (301087.SZ)
- HKEX IPO Announcement & Articles of Association (May 2026, 1187.HK)
- Futunn: Controlling shareholder H-share accumulation (1.3244M shares, July 2026)
- Futunn/Moomoo: A-share buyback progress reports (July 22–28, 2026)
- Moomoo: H-share +7% catalyst (government rehabilitation device industry support); +6% on A-share buyback announcement
- Gurufocus: Yuwell Medical (002223.SZ) P/E and price data (Jul 25, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance: 1187.HK price and market cap reference
- Tencent Finance / Stockstar: 2025 annual report financial summary
- Smartkarma: IPO research note ("Reasonably Priced with Reasonable Potential Gain")
- Minichart: IPO listing details, cornerstone investors
- Law Asia: IPO legal advisers and transaction details
No redactions applied.
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