Fair-Value Report — National United Resources Holdings Ltd. (0254.HK)

Insider Signal

Verified Snapshot

All HKD. Balance sheet as at 31 December 2025 per unaudited interim data. Price as of 4 June 2026 close.

Business Overview

National United Resources Holdings Limited (incorporated in Hong Kong, 1972) is an investment holding company with three operating segments at latest reported period (FY2025 annual, year ended 30 June 2025):

• Car Rental & Shuttle Bus — conventional and electric shuttle buses for institutional clients (corporates, schools); passenger car rental with/without chauffeur. Client base includes multinationals such as ABB and Novartis. This segment revenue fell ~30% in H1 FY2026.
• Information Technology — provision of traffic-data analytics, cloud computing, and industry information solutions via Beijing Ruixin Technology (acquired March 2024). Revenue-generating assets in this segment were disposed of, contributing to the H1 FY2026 revenue decline. This segment appears to be winding down.
• Resources Trading — trading of coking coal, aluminum rod, and fuel oil in China and Singapore. Provides periodic chunky revenue but low margins and high working-capital intensity.

The company's strategy has pivoted repeatedly. The massive net profits in FY2022 (HKD 300M) and FY2023 (HKD 135M) on revenues of ~HKD 77M were driven by investment/disposal gains, not operations. Core operating profitability has been consistently negative. Revenue grew from HKD 77M to HKD 104M (FY2025) but then reversed sharply in H1 FY2026.

Financial Summary

Sources: StockAnalysis.com, Globe and Mail / TipRanks (profit warning for H1 FY2026). FY = fiscal year ending indicated month. HKD reporting currency.

Balance Sheet — Key Dates

Source: StockAnalysis.com. Note: Equity increased +HKD 32M in H1 FY2026 despite losses of ~HKD 23M; likely reflects OCI gains or asset-disposal proceeds. The balance sheet is restated-quality unaudited; treat with appropriate caution.

Valuation

Method

Per the loss-making / story-pivot framework: P/B-anchored asset value + scenario optionality. No DCF is appropriate here — the company has no positive FCF and no reliable earnings path. The P/B anchor uses reported shareholders' equity of HKD 76.91M (Dec 31, 2025). Book value per share: HKD 76.91M ÷ 563.76M = HKD 0.136/share.

The fair P/B multiple for a small-cap, loss-making, multi-segment HK company reflects:

• Downward adjustments: negative ROE (–53%), declining revenue, uncertain business direction, high net debt vs equity (debt/equity ~3.9×), going-concern risk if losses persist.
• Upward adjustments: cash of HKD 180M (partly offsetting losses), potential value in resources trading / car rental franchise, unidentified 12.42% block buyer suggests some private value perception.

Scenario Table

Reverse Read

At HKD 0.93, the market implies P/B of 6.8× on Dec-2025 book — a multiple appropriate for a high-ROE (20%+), growing, profitable franchise. National United Resources has ROE of –53%, shrinking revenue, and no near-term profit visibility. To justify HKD 0.93 on fundamentals alone would require: book value growing to ~HKD 310M (4× current) while maintaining the same share count — implying cumulative net income of ~HKD 233M from a company that lost HKD 64M on a TTM basis. Absent a takeover premium or extraordinary asset realisation, the current price is not supportable by fundamentals.

Peer Comparison

Peer ranges are illustrative sector medians for comparable small-cap HKEX-listed companies. No precise peer table is available due to the company's multi-segment, loss-making profile.

Conclusion

He Yuanfan's accumulation of a 12.42% stake at ~HKD 0.66 in April 2026 is a real secondary-market purchase — shares outstanding are unchanged from the November 2025 AGM, and no placing announcement has been filed. The signal therefore reflects genuine capital commitment by an outside party. However:

• He Yuanfan is completely unidentified. They may be a private investor, a nominee, or a trust acting for undisclosed principals. Motive is opaque.
• The business is shrinking fast — H1 FY2026 revenue down 38.7% YoY to HKD 34.3M, loss widening to HKD 22–25M on a half-year basis.
• The IT segment (the acquired Beijing Ruixin, purchased 2024) is being wound down with its revenue-generating assets disposed.
• At HKD 0.93 (Jun 4, 2026), the stock has already risen 41% from the purchase price of HKD 0.66, largely as the DI filing became public.
• Every fundamental valuation scenario — bear, base, bull — sits dramatically below HKD 0.93. The stock is priced for perfection (or speculation) that the underlying business does not support.

Rating: AVOID. The insider signal is real; the price is wrong. New buyers at HKD 0.93 are paying 6.8× book for a company earning negative returns on equity.

Key Risks

• Revenue collapse: H1 FY2026 revenue of HKD 34.3M annualises to ~HKD 68M, already below FY2025's HKD 104M. Car rental down 30%; IT assets sold. Further deterioration is possible.
• Liquidity / debt covenant risk: Net debt HKD 121M vs equity HKD 77M (net debt/equity 157%). Debt of HKD 301M requires servicing from a cash pile (HKD 180M) with no operating free cash flow.
• Going concern: Cumulative operating losses with no near-term path to profitability. If losses continue at the H1 FY2026 rate (~HKD 23M/half), equity could be eroded within 12–18 months.
• Opaque buyer motive: He Yuanfan's intentions are unknown. A subsequent sale of the 12.42% block into the market would create significant price pressure given thin float.
• Corporate action premium not guaranteed: The stock's elevated P/B could reflect takeover/privatisation speculation. But there is no publicly announced offer and the buyer's identity suggests no certain bid.
• Segment mis-direction: Resources trading (coal, fuel oil) is exposed to commodity price cycles, credit risk from counterparties, and regulatory risks in China/Singapore.
• Micro-cap liquidity: Average daily turnover is thin; exit for a large holder would be difficult without significant price impact.

Sources

• StockAnalysis.com — HKG:0254 financials, balance sheet (accessed Jun 4, 2026)
• Google Finance — 0254:HKG price HKD 0.93 (Jun 4, 2026, 10:47 HKT)
• Stockopedia — HKG:254 valuation metrics, classification (accessed Jun 4, 2026)
• Globe and Mail / TipRanks — National United Resources H1 FY2026 profit warning (revenue HKD 34.3M, loss HKD 22–25M)
• HKEX News — AGM Poll Results Nov 27, 2025 (shares in issue 563,762,840; director roster confirmed)
• HKEX News — 2025 ESG Report (Jul 2024–Jun 2025 period; business description)
• HKEX DI System — He Yuanfan disclosure of interests, event date Apr 24, 2026, reason 1101/1103, 12.42% acquired
• Moning.co — Business segment descriptions verified