Short-squeeze watchlist - US stocks (updated twice a month)
Short interest settled Sep 30, 2026 (FINRA, published about 8 business days later) · prices Oct 12, 2026 · ownership filings to Oct 13, 2026. Updated with every short-interest report (twice a month). A watchlist, not buy signals - see what history says below. Not investment advice.
Watch: 50%+ of free float shorted and a large holder buying
0
Crowded: 50%+ shorted, no large-holder buying
2
Building: 35-50% shorted and a large holder buying
1
Watch (0)
Short interest is at least half of the shares that actually trade, and a large holder (insider, 10%+ owner or 13D filer) has been adding - the set-up Avis (CAR) had before its 2026 squeeze.
None this report.
Crowded (2)
At least half of the free float is sold short, but no large holder is adding. Crowded, no trigger in the filings.
| Ticker | Company | Value | Short % of shares | Free float | Short % of free float | Days to cover | Large holders (5%+) | Bought in last 90 days | Dealer 13G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOLF | Wolfspeed, Inc. | $1.6B | 51% | 61% | 83% | 11.4 | Renesas Electronics America Inc. 32% | – | 28% |
| LCID | Lucid Group, Inc. Common Sto | $1.5B | 24% | 32% | 74% | 8.6 | Ayar Third Investment Company 57%; Uber Technologies, Inc 10% | – | – |
Building (1)
35-50% of the free float sold short and a large holder adding.
| Ticker | Company | Value | Short % of shares | Free float | Short % of free float | Days to cover | Large holders (5%+) | Bought in last 90 days | Dealer 13G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Common | $1.8B | 18% | 48% | 38% | 15.5 | InnoCare Pharma Inc. 11%; SR One Capital Opportunities Partn 8%; SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 6% | InnoCare Pharma Inc. +3.1% · new 10% owner | – |
What history says (2018-2026)
- Big squeezes are rare. Stocks 20%+ shorted that tripled within 3 months: about 15 a year, mostly tiny companies; in companies over $1B only about 3 a year.
- Most squeezes are theme rallies (EV, crypto, meme, AI, quantum, a biotech result), not shorts trapped by concentrated owners. Across 132 squeezes this ownership pattern was not more common than in heavily shorted stocks that did not squeeze (6% vs 11%).
- In companies over $1B there is a hint: 50%+ of free float shorted appeared before 4 of 18 squeezes vs 2 of 43 non-squeezes; a large holder buying before 6 of 18 vs 4 of 43. Small numbers - treat as a lead, not an edge.
- Avis (CAR) 2026, the model case: SRS held ~50% for years while buybacks shrank the float; short interest reached 55-59% of free float from Aug 2025 (the stock still halved, $204 to $96); then Pentwater crossed 10% (Form 3, Feb 24 2026) and kept buying to 22% - the stock went from ~$100 to ~$494 in seven weeks, and fell back when Pentwater sold.
- Heavily shorted stocks usually keep falling: 20%+ shorted and very volatile had a median 3-month return of -12%; a crowded list is also a list of likely losers.
Full studies: Short squeezes - can you see them coming? · Short interest - do short sellers get it right?
Short interest: FINRA via Massive (shares sold short at settlement). Shares outstanding, market value and free float: Massive (free float = shares not held by insiders/strategic holders, updated a few times a year). Large holders and buying: SEC Form 3/4 and Schedule 13D/13G filings (a 13D % can include warrants and convertibles). Dealer 13G = banks/market makers holding 5%+, usually hedges of options or swaps. Screen: US common stock and ADRs worth $1B+, 10%+ of shares shorted. Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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