Multi-bagger strategy - paper portfolio - 2026-10-23 update
📌 Snapshot of the Oct 23, 2026 update (orders for the next open). Always-current page with the full portfolio and daily log →
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-23 · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$976,186
Since start
-2.4%
IWM since start
-0.8%
Cash
73%
Positions
14 / 50
Closed trades
3
Rules: started with $1,000,000 from the picks of 2026-10-09. Every week, US stocks that have just doubled off their 52-week low (2.0-2.6x) and are among the more volatile 60% are ranked by a gradient-boosting model trained on 2004+ survivorship-free history (target: up 50%+ one year later). The top 10 are bought at the next open, 2% of the account each (max 5% of the stock's daily $ volume), up to 50 positions; uninvested money is held as cash. Companies under $500M market cap based in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand or Cayman/BVI are excluded. Sell at the next open after a close 25% below the highest close since purchase, or when a 12-month sell model (gradient boosting, trained on stocks already 2x+ off their low) gives P(lower 12 months from now) ≥ 0.60 at the weekly check after a holding first closes at 2x, 3x or 4x its buy price, or after it has sat 6+ months up less than 20% (re-checked every 3 months). Costs 0.5% per side.
Crash-rule watch (not applied): 46% of US stocks above their 200-day average (signals of 2026-10-23); the S4 rule would be off. It is on below 40% and off again at 50%; in research it cut the 2008-type drawdown from about -70% to -31% but cost 2-5 points a year in normal years, so it is tracked, not used.
Orders for the next open
Buy - this week's new picks (signals of 2026-10-23; 146 candidates)
| Ticker | Company | Close | From 52w low | vs 52w high | Score | Hist. +50% rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARTV | Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stoc | $6.15 | 2.00x | -54% | 0.62 | 33% |
| FTH | Sensei Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stoc | $17.08 | 2.16x | -57% | 0.62 | 33% |
| BLZE | Backblaze, Inc. Class A Common Stock | $8.34 | 2.52x | -59% | 0.60 | 28% |
| EFOR | Everforth, Inc. | $43.59 | 2.56x | -18% | 0.58 | 28% |
| FA | First Advantage Corporation Common Stock | $21.25 | 2.37x | -12% | 0.58 | 28% |
| ACHV | Achieve Life Sciences, Inc. | $6.49 | 2.45x | -24% | 0.58 | 28% |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc Class A Common Stock | $12.86 | 2.58x | -2% | 0.57 | 28% |
| INTA | Intapp, Inc. Common Stock | $47.99 | 2.51x | +0% | 0.57 | 28% |
| MEI | Methode Electronics | $12.12 | 2.40x | -38% | 0.57 | 28% |
| IBTA | Ibotta, Inc. | $48.61 | 2.53x | -1% | 0.57 | 28% |
Sell: none
Open positions (14)
| Ticker | Entry | Value | Return | Last | Stop | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | 2026-10-12 | $22,475 | +12.9% | $4.19 | $3.14 | -25% |
| BB | 2026-10-19 | $20,922 | +8.1% | $8.92 | $7.06 | -21% |
| MRVI | 2026-10-19 | $20,861 | +7.8% | $7.32 | $5.68 | -22% |
| RZLT | 2026-10-19 | $20,606 | +6.5% | $3.85 | $2.90 | -25% |
| EVH | 2026-10-19 | $20,549 | +6.2% | $4.80 | $3.67 | -24% |
| FATE | 2026-10-12 | $19,713 | -0.9% | $2.11 | $1.60 | -24% |
| ACRS | 2026-10-12 | $19,638 | -1.3% | $3.75 | $2.87 | -23% |
| PGEN | 2026-10-19 | $18,570 | -4.0% | $6.19 | $5.12 | -17% |
| XRX | 2026-10-12 | $18,525 | -6.9% | $2.56 | $2.13 | -17% |
| HNST | 2026-10-19 | $18,284 | -5.5% | $4.80 | $3.81 | -21% |
| OVID | 2026-10-12 | $17,544 | -11.8% | $2.16 | $1.85 | -14% |
| IRD | 2026-10-19 | $17,350 | -10.3% | $3.47 | $3.09 | -11% |
| TRX | 2026-10-12 | $16,824 | -15.5% | $0.98 | $0.87 | -11% |
| SABR | 2026-10-12 | $16,089 | -19.1% | $1.52 | $1.41 | -7% |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | IWM | Cash | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | $976,186 | -2.4% | -0.8% | 73% | 14 |
| Sold 1: GCTS | |||||
| 2026-10-22 | $979,681 | -2.0% | -0.4% | 71% | 15 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-21 | $987,131 | -1.3% | -0.5% | 70% | 15 |
| Sold 1: SIDU | |||||
| 2026-10-20 | $983,976 | -1.6% | -0.8% | 69% | 16 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-19 | $972,878 | -2.7% | -2.4% | 70% | 16 |
| Bought 7: RZLT, BB, HNST, IRD, PGEN, MRVI, EVH Sold 1: KOPN | |||||
| 2026-10-16 | $971,996 | -2.8% | -2.7% | 82% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-15 | $982,046 | -1.8% | -1.0% | 81% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-14 | $980,098 | -2.0% | -2.3% | 82% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-13 | $988,387 | -1.2% | -0.4% | 81% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-12 | $994,777 | -0.5% | +0.0% | 80% | 10 |
| Bought 10: SABR, FATE, XRX, SIDU, GCTS, ACRS, OVID, WTI, KOPN, TRX | |||||
Closed trades (3)
| Ticker | Bought | Sold | Return | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCTS | 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-23 | -30.0% | trailing stop (close 25% below peak) |
| SIDU | 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-21 | -24.1% | trailing stop (close 25% below peak) |
| KOPN | 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-19 | -24.1% | trailing stop (close 25% below peak) |
Shadow book (test)
Same model, picks and rules, except that any candidate with a one-day drop of 20% or more in the last 30 days is skipped and the next-best candidate is bought instead (research 2010-26, before the 2026-10-18 model correction: +0.6 point a year, inside the model's own noise; no gain over 2010-22, better 2023-26). Started as a copy of the real book on 2026-10-13; test for 12 months, adopted only if it ends >= 2 points ahead with no worse drawdown.
Shadow account
$976,186
vs real book
+0.00%
Shadow max drawdown
-1.7%
Holds that the real book does not: none · real book only: none · skipped this week (recent 20%+ crash): BLZE
Research (corrected 2026-10-18, price-only): about 13-15% a year 2010-2026 depending on re-training (13.0% on the current data) vs IWM 9% and SPY 12%. Earlier published figures (19.5%, then 18%) were too high: the model used each stock's split-adjusted price level, which quietly reveals future reverse splits; the model no longer uses it. Without that, 2010-2019 was about level with IWM and the edge comes from 2020 on (2023-26: about 25-30% a year). Only ~37% of trades win - a few big winners carry the result. Risk: in a 2008-type crash expect a 50%+ loss. Data: Massive (survivorship-free, split-adjusted, no dividends; missing splits and renames corrected). Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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