Multi-bagger strategy - paper portfolio - 2026-10-21 update
Crash-rule watch (not applied): 44% of US stocks above their 200-day average (signals of 2026-10-16); the S4 rule would be off. It is on below 40% and off again at 50%; in research it cut the 2008-type drawdown from about -70% to -31% but cost 2-5 points a year in normal years, so it is tracked, not used.
Orders for the next open
Buy: none (new picks every weekend)
Sell: none
Open positions (15)
| Ticker | Entry | Value | Return | Last | Stop | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB | 2026-10-19 | $22,071 | +14.1% | $9.41 | $7.06 | -25% |
| MRVI | 2026-10-19 | $21,573 | +11.5% | $7.57 | $5.68 | -25% |
| WTI | 2026-10-12 | $21,348 | +7.3% | $3.98 | $2.98 | -25% |
| EVH | 2026-10-19 | $20,677 | +6.9% | $4.83 | $3.65 | -24% |
| IRD | 2026-10-19 | $20,575 | +6.3% | $4.12 | $3.09 | -25% |
| OVID | 2026-10-12 | $20,062 | +0.8% | $2.47 | $1.85 | -25% |
| ACRS | 2026-10-12 | $19,952 | +0.3% | $3.81 | $2.86 | -25% |
| XRX | 2026-10-12 | $19,828 | -0.4% | $2.74 | $2.13 | -22% |
| PGEN | 2026-10-19 | $19,800 | +2.3% | $6.60 | $5.12 | -22% |
| RZLT | 2026-10-19 | $19,778 | +2.2% | $3.70 | $2.78 | -25% |
| FATE | 2026-10-12 | $19,339 | -2.8% | $2.07 | $1.60 | -23% |
| HNST | 2026-10-19 | $18,512 | -4.3% | $4.86 | $3.81 | -22% |
| TRX | 2026-10-12 | $18,013 | -9.5% | $1.05 | $0.87 | -17% |
| SABR | 2026-10-12 | $16,089 | -19.1% | $1.52 | $1.41 | -7% |
| GCTS | 2026-10-12 | $15,277 | -23.2% | $1.52 | $1.48 | -2% |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | IWM | Cash | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | $987,131 | -1.3% | -0.5% | 70% | 15 |
| Sold 1: SIDU | |||||
| 2026-10-20 | $983,976 | -1.6% | -0.8% | 69% | 16 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-19 | $972,878 | -2.7% | -2.4% | 70% | 16 |
| Bought 7: RZLT, BB, HNST, IRD, PGEN, MRVI, EVH Sold 1: KOPN | |||||
| 2026-10-16 | $971,996 | -2.8% | -2.7% | 82% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-15 | $982,046 | -1.8% | -1.0% | 81% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-14 | $980,098 | -2.0% | -2.3% | 82% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-13 | $988,387 | -1.2% | -0.4% | 81% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-12 | $994,777 | -0.5% | +0.0% | 80% | 10 |
| Bought 10: SABR, FATE, XRX, SIDU, GCTS, ACRS, OVID, WTI, KOPN, TRX | |||||
Closed trades (2)
| Ticker | Bought | Sold | Return | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIDU | 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-21 | -24.1% | trailing stop (close 25% below peak) |
| KOPN | 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-19 | -24.1% | trailing stop (close 25% below peak) |
Shadow book (test)
Same model, picks and rules, except that any candidate with a one-day drop of 20% or more in the last 30 days is skipped and the next-best candidate is bought instead (research 2010-26, before the 2026-10-18 model correction: +0.6 point a year, inside the model's own noise; no gain over 2010-22, better 2023-26). Started as a copy of the real book on 2026-10-13; test for 12 months, adopted only if it ends >= 2 points ahead with no worse drawdown.
Holds that the real book does not: none · real book only: none
No redactions applied.
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