wiis/wiːs/Write It, I'll Share

Multi-bagger strategy - paper portfolio - 2026-10-20 update

by daily-log-of-system-trading

📌 Snapshot of the Oct 20, 2026 update (orders for the next open). Always-current page with the full portfolio and daily log →
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-20 · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$983,976
Since start
-1.6%
IWM since start
-0.8%
Cash
69%
Positions
16 / 50
Closed trades
1
Rules: started with $1,000,000 from the picks of 2026-10-09. Every week, US stocks that have just doubled off their 52-week low (2.0-2.6x) and are among the more volatile 60% are ranked by a gradient-boosting model trained on 2004+ survivorship-free history (target: up 50%+ one year later). The top 10 are bought at the next open, 2% of the account each (max 5% of the stock's daily $ volume), up to 50 positions; uninvested money is held as cash. Companies under $500M market cap based in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand or Cayman/BVI are excluded. Sell at the next open after a close 25% below the highest close since purchase, or when a 12-month sell model (gradient boosting, trained on stocks already 2x+ off their low) gives P(lower 12 months from now) ≥ 0.60 at the weekly check after a holding first closes at 2x, 3x or 4x its buy price, or after it has sat 6+ months up less than 20% (re-checked every 3 months). Costs 0.5% per side.

Crash-rule watch (not applied): 44% of US stocks above their 200-day average (signals of 2026-10-16); the S4 rule would be off. It is on below 40% and off again at 50%; in research it cut the 2008-type drawdown from about -70% to -31% but cost 2-5 points a year in normal years, so it is tracked, not used.

Orders for the next open

Buy: none (new picks every weekend)

Sell

TickerReturnBoughtWhy
SIDU-26.0%2026-10-12trailing stop (close 25% below peak)

Open positions (16)

TickerEntryValueReturnLastStopRoom
WTI2026-10-12$21,187+6.5%$3.95$2.96-25%
EVH2026-10-19$20,849+7.7%$4.87$3.65-25%
BB2026-10-19$20,804+7.5%$8.87$6.65-25%
MRVI2026-10-19$20,519+6.0%$7.20$5.40-25%
PGEN2026-10-19$20,490+5.9%$6.83$5.12-25%
IRD2026-10-19$20,050+3.6%$4.01$3.01-25%
RZLT2026-10-19$19,778+2.2%$3.70$2.78-25%
ACRS2026-10-12$19,743-0.8%$3.77$2.85-24%
HNST2026-10-19$19,293-0.3%$5.07$3.81-25%
FATE2026-10-12$19,246-3.3%$2.06$1.60-22%
OVID2026-10-12$19,169-3.7%$2.36$1.84-22%
XRX2026-10-12$18,887-5.1%$2.61$2.13-18%
TRX2026-10-12$18,184-8.6%$1.06$0.87-18%
SABR2026-10-12$16,619-16.5%$1.57$1.41-10%
GCTS2026-10-12$15,377-22.7%$1.53$1.48-3%
SIDU2026-10-12$14,726-26.0%$1.11$1.12+1%

Daily log

US closeAccountReturnIWMCashPos.
2026-10-20$983,976-1.6%-0.8%69%16
No trades
2026-10-19$972,878-2.7%-2.4%70%16
Bought 7: RZLT, BB, HNST, IRD, PGEN, MRVI, EVH
Sold 1: KOPN
2026-10-16$971,996-2.8%-2.7%82%10
No trades
2026-10-15$982,046-1.8%-1.0%81%10
No trades
2026-10-14$980,098-2.0%-2.3%82%10
No trades
2026-10-13$988,387-1.2%-0.4%81%10
No trades
2026-10-12$994,777-0.5%+0.0%80%10
Bought 10: SABR, FATE, XRX, SIDU, GCTS, ACRS, OVID, WTI, KOPN, TRX

Closed trades (1)

TickerBoughtSoldReturnWhy
KOPN2026-10-122026-10-19-24.1%trailing stop (close 25% below peak)

Shadow book (test)

Same model, picks and rules, except that any candidate with a one-day drop of 20% or more in the last 30 days is skipped and the next-best candidate is bought instead (research 2010-26, before the 2026-10-18 model correction: +0.6 point a year, inside the model's own noise; no gain over 2010-22, better 2023-26). Started as a copy of the real book on 2026-10-13; test for 12 months, adopted only if it ends >= 2 points ahead with no worse drawdown.

Shadow account
$983,976
vs real book
+0.00%
Shadow max drawdown
-1.7%

Holds that the real book does not: none · real book only: none

Research (corrected 2026-10-18, price-only): about 13-15% a year 2010-2026 depending on re-training (13.0% on the current data) vs IWM 9% and SPY 12%. Earlier published figures (19.5%, then 18%) were too high: the model used each stock's split-adjusted price level, which quietly reveals future reverse splits; the model no longer uses it. Without that, 2010-2019 was about level with IWM and the edge comes from 2020 on (2023-26: about 25-30% a year). Only ~37% of trades win - a few big winners carry the result. Risk: in a 2008-type crash expect a 50%+ loss. Data: Massive (survivorship-free, split-adjusted, no dividends; missing splits and renames corrected). Not investment advice.

Discussion

No comments yet.

No redactions applied.

Published via wiis. Originals are encrypted at rest; this page reflects the redacted version. report abuse.