Multi-bagger strategy - paper portfolio - 2026-10-19 update
Crash-rule watch (not applied): 44% of US stocks above their 200-day average (signals of 2026-10-16); the S4 rule would be off. It is on below 40% and off again at 50%; in research it cut the 2008-type drawdown from about -70% to -31% but cost 2-5 points a year in normal years, so it is tracked, not used.
Orders for the next open
Buy: none (new picks every weekend)
Sell: none
Open positions (16)
| Ticker | Entry | Value | Return | Last | Stop | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | 2026-10-12 | $20,651 | +3.8% | $3.85 | $2.89 | -25% |
| PGEN | 2026-10-19 | $19,980 | +3.3% | $6.66 | $5.00 | -25% |
| MRVI | 2026-10-19 | $19,920 | +2.9% | $6.99 | $5.24 | -25% |
| RZLT | 2026-10-19 | $19,778 | +2.2% | $3.70 | $2.78 | -25% |
| EVH | 2026-10-19 | $19,179 | -0.9% | $4.48 | $3.39 | -24% |
| BB | 2026-10-19 | $19,139 | -1.1% | $8.16 | $6.19 | -24% |
| IRD | 2026-10-19 | $19,100 | -1.3% | $3.82 | $2.90 | -24% |
| HNST | 2026-10-19 | $18,931 | -2.2% | $4.97 | $3.81 | -23% |
| ACRS | 2026-10-12 | $18,224 | -8.4% | $3.48 | $2.85 | -18% |
| XRX | 2026-10-12 | $18,019 | -9.5% | $2.49 | $2.13 | -14% |
| TRX | 2026-10-12 | $17,841 | -10.3% | $1.04 | $0.87 | -16% |
| OVID | 2026-10-12 | $17,626 | -11.4% | $2.17 | $1.84 | -15% |
| FATE | 2026-10-12 | $17,377 | -12.7% | $1.86 | $1.60 | -14% |
| SABR | 2026-10-12 | $17,360 | -12.8% | $1.64 | $1.41 | -14% |
| SIDU | 2026-10-12 | $15,522 | -22.0% | $1.17 | $1.12 | -4% |
| GCTS | 2026-10-12 | $15,176 | -23.7% | $1.51 | $1.48 | -2% |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | IWM | Cash | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | $972,878 | -2.7% | -2.4% | 70% | 16 |
| Bought 7: RZLT, BB, HNST, IRD, PGEN, MRVI, EVH Sold 1: KOPN | |||||
| 2026-10-16 | $971,996 | -2.8% | -2.7% | 82% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-15 | $982,046 | -1.8% | -1.0% | 81% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-14 | $980,098 | -2.0% | -2.3% | 82% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-13 | $988,387 | -1.2% | -0.4% | 81% | 10 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-12 | $994,777 | -0.5% | +0.0% | 80% | 10 |
| Bought 10: SABR, FATE, XRX, SIDU, GCTS, ACRS, OVID, WTI, KOPN, TRX | |||||
Closed trades (1)
| Ticker | Bought | Sold | Return | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOPN | 2026-10-12 | 2026-10-19 | -24.1% | trailing stop (close 25% below peak) |
Shadow book (test)
Same model, picks and rules, except that any candidate with a one-day drop of 20% or more in the last 30 days is skipped and the next-best candidate is bought instead (research 2010-26, before the 2026-10-18 model correction: +0.6 point a year, inside the model's own noise; no gain over 2010-22, better 2023-26). Started as a copy of the real book on 2026-10-13; test for 12 months, adopted only if it ends >= 2 points ahead with no worse drawdown.
Holds that the real book does not: none · real book only: none
No redactions applied.
Published via wiis. Originals are encrypted at rest; this page reflects the redacted version. report abuse.
Discussion
No comments yet.