Capitulation strategy - paper portfolio - 2026-10-16 update
📌 Snapshot of the Oct 16, 2026 update (orders for the next open). Always-current page with the full portfolio and daily log →
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-16 · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$991,715
Since start
-0.8%
SPY since start
-1.4%
Cash
0%
Positions
40 / 40
Closed trades
0
Rules (exp11): started 2026-10-08 with $1,000,000. Buy any S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100 stock that makes a new 60-day low while 30%+ below its 52-week high, at the next open, 2.5% of the account per stock, max 40, biggest by dollar volume first. Sell at the next open after a close 30% below the highest close since purchase.
Orders for the next open
Buy: none (12 signals)
Not funded (no cash or slots): AMAT, KLAC, CMG, UAL
Sell: none
Open positions (40)
| Ticker | Entry | Days | Value | Return | Last | Stop | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 2026-10-12 | 5 | $26,534 | +6.3% | $159.10 | $111.37 | -30% |
| CPRT | 2026-10-14 | 3 | $26,427 | +6.2% | $27.87 | $19.51 | -30% |
| CHTR | 2026-10-12 | 5 | $26,416 | +5.8% | $110.11 | $77.08 | -30% |
| BSX | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $26,334 | +5.3% | $44.39 | $31.07 | -30% |
| LHX | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $26,201 | +4.8% | $248.51 | $173.96 | -30% |
| CMCSA | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $26,196 | +4.8% | $21.90 | $15.33 | -30% |
| CRH | 2026-10-14 | 3 | $26,137 | +5.0% | $83.63 | $58.54 | -30% |
| LULU | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $26,123 | +4.5% | $97.10 | $69.36 | -29% |
| LVS | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $26,021 | +4.1% | $38.01 | $26.82 | -29% |
| HII | 2026-10-14 | 3 | $26,020 | +4.6% | $272.00 | $190.40 | -30% |
| DPZ | 2026-10-14 | 3 | $26,013 | +4.5% | $308.64 | $216.05 | -30% |
| MLM | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $25,880 | +4.7% | $500.84 | $350.59 | -30% |
| LII | 2026-10-14 | 3 | $25,789 | +3.6% | $357.73 | $250.95 | -30% |
| PNR | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $25,566 | +2.3% | $53.44 | $37.42 | -30% |
| BLDR | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $25,444 | +1.8% | $54.65 | $38.26 | -30% |
| HWM | 2026-10-14 | 3 | $25,327 | +1.8% | $220.96 | $154.67 | -30% |
| F | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $25,290 | +2.3% | $12.43 | $8.70 | -30% |
| NVR | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $25,189 | +1.9% | $5,919.82 | $4,158.58 | -30% |
| APP | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $25,116 | +1.6% | $266.13 | $195.50 | -27% |
| LEN | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $25,107 | +1.6% | $77.08 | $54.38 | -29% |
| WYNN | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $25,004 | +0.0% | $75.60 | $53.88 | -29% |
| CAT | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $24,871 | +0.6% | $730.76 | $514.95 | -30% |
| FER | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $24,629 | -1.5% | $49.41 | $35.39 | -28% |
| JBL | 2026-10-16 | 1 | $24,602 | -2.3% | $278.25 | $199.20 | -28% |
| ARES | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $24,580 | -0.5% | $112.27 | $79.82 | -29% |
| BX | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $24,576 | -0.6% | $106.61 | $76.44 | -28% |
| AVGO | 2026-10-16 | 1 | $24,446 | -2.9% | $328.75 | $236.85 | -28% |
| VRT | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $24,027 | -2.8% | $206.42 | $150.32 | -27% |
| KKR | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $23,821 | -4.7% | $86.21 | $64.06 | -26% |
| MOS | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $23,739 | -5.0% | $18.82 | $13.87 | -26% |
| CRWV | 2026-10-16 | 1 | $23,692 | -5.9% | $61.39 | $45.64 | -26% |
| MGM | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $23,617 | -5.5% | $28.60 | $21.18 | -26% |
| RKLB | 2026-10-16 | 1 | $23,475 | -6.7% | $50.84 | $38.14 | -25% |
| FLEX | 2026-10-15 | 2 | $23,251 | -5.9% | $90.46 | $68.95 | -24% |
| AXON | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $23,240 | -7.0% | $390.29 | $296.02 | -24% |
| ALB | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $23,163 | -7.3% | $95.48 | $72.10 | -24% |
| ARE | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $22,797 | -8.8% | $41.62 | $31.93 | -23% |
| STX | 2026-10-14 | 3 | $21,681 | -12.9% | $639.01 | $513.13 | -20% |
| AKAM | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $21,427 | -14.3% | $87.81 | $74.86 | -15% |
| WDC | 2026-10-09 | 6 | $20,878 | -16.5% | $332.00 | $278.15 | -16% |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | SPY | Cash | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | $991,715 | -0.8% | -1.4% | 0% | 40 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-15 | $1,006,975 | +0.7% | -0.3% | 10% | 36 |
| Bought 4: AVGO, CRWV, RKLB, JBL | |||||
| 2026-10-14 | $988,438 | -1.2% | -0.6% | 35% | 26 |
| Bought 10: CAT, APP, VRT, BX, F, LEN, MLM, FLEX, ARES, NVR | |||||
| 2026-10-13 | $995,364 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 19 |
| Bought 7: STX, HWM, CRH, CPRT, DPZ, LII, HII | |||||
| 2026-10-12 | $995,418 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 19 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-09 | $998,490 | -0.2% | +0.6% | 58% | 17 |
| Bought 2: TMUS, CHTR | |||||
| 2026-10-08 | $1,000,000 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | 0 |
| Bought 17: WDC, BSX, CMCSA, AKAM, LULU, AXON, KKR, LHX, ALB, LVS, MOS, WYNN, MGM, BLDR, PNR, FER, ARE | |||||
How much to trust it (research update 2026-10-15): on survivorship-free data the rules beat SPY in 2016-2026 (about 17.5% vs 15% a year, total return) but lost to it in 2005-2014 (3.5% vs 5.5% a year, price only; -50% in 2008 vs SPY -38%, worst fall -66%). The edge so far comes from fast V-shaped rebounds in big stocks (2020, 2025); treat it as an unproven bet on that kind of market.
Shadow book (test)
Same signals and rules; when there are more signals than cash or slots, signals after an 8%+ drop with no SEC filing (no company news) get cash first, signals after an earnings drop last (research 2016-26: median 60 days after the signal +19.9% vs +3.9%). Test for 12 months; adopted only if it ends >= 2 points ahead with no worse drawdown.
Shadow account
$991,715
vs real book
+0.00%
Shadow max drawdown
-1.5%
Holds that the real book does not: none · real book only: none · next-open buys: none · today's signals ranked up/down: STX (no-news crash), WDC (no-news crash), FLEX (no-news crash), MGM (no-news crash)
Backtested rule set run as a paper portfolio. Data: Yahoo Finance daily bars; index membership point-in-time. Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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