Capitulation strategy - paper portfolio - 2026-10-15 update
📌 Snapshot of the Oct 15, 2026 update (orders for the next open). Always-current page with the full portfolio and daily log →
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-15 · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$1,006,975
Since start
+0.7%
SPY since start
-0.3%
Cash
10%
Positions
36 / 40
Closed trades
0
Rules (exp11): started 2026-10-08 with $1,000,000. Buy any S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100 stock that makes a new 60-day low while 30%+ below its 52-week high, at the next open, 2.5% of the account per stock, max 40, biggest by dollar volume first. Sell at the next open after a close 30% below the highest close since purchase.
Orders for the next open
Buy - 4 of 14 signals
| Ticker | Close | vs 52w high |
|---|---|---|
| AVGO | $344.33 | -30% |
| CRWV | $69.69 | -54% |
| RKLB | $55.25 | -63% |
| JBL | $287.14 | -33% |
Sell: none
Open positions (36)
| Ticker | Entry | Days | Value | Return | Last | Stop | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LULU | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $26,658 | +6.6% | $99.09 | $69.36 | +43% |
| APP | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $26,431 | +7.0% | $279.29 | $195.50 | +43% |
| CHTR | 2026-10-12 | 4 | $26,387 | +5.7% | $109.99 | $76.99 | +43% |
| CPRT | 2026-10-14 | 2 | $26,313 | +5.7% | $27.75 | $19.42 | +43% |
| LVS | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $26,233 | +4.9% | $38.32 | $26.82 | +43% |
| TMUS | 2026-10-12 | 4 | $26,189 | +4.9% | $157.03 | $110.45 | +42% |
| BSX | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $26,186 | +4.7% | $44.14 | $30.90 | +43% |
| CMCSA | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $26,040 | +4.2% | $21.77 | $15.24 | +43% |
| LII | 2026-10-14 | 2 | $25,845 | +3.9% | $358.50 | $250.95 | +43% |
| CRH | 2026-10-14 | 2 | $25,728 | +3.4% | $82.32 | $57.62 | +43% |
| PNR | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $25,571 | +2.3% | $53.45 | $37.42 | +43% |
| HII | 2026-10-14 | 2 | $25,562 | +2.7% | $267.22 | $187.05 | +43% |
| DPZ | 2026-10-14 | 2 | $25,545 | +2.7% | $303.09 | $212.16 | +43% |
| WYNN | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $25,457 | +1.8% | $76.97 | $53.88 | +43% |
| MLM | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $25,384 | +2.7% | $491.23 | $343.86 | +43% |
| LHX | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $25,357 | +1.4% | $240.50 | $168.35 | +43% |
| LEN | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $25,308 | +2.4% | $77.69 | $54.38 | +43% |
| FLEX | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $25,301 | +2.4% | $98.50 | $68.95 | +43% |
| NVR | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $25,278 | +2.3% | $5,940.83 | $4,158.58 | +43% |
| HWM | 2026-10-14 | 2 | $25,182 | +1.2% | $219.70 | $153.79 | +43% |
| BX | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $25,173 | +1.9% | $109.20 | $76.44 | +43% |
| F | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $25,046 | +1.3% | $12.31 | $8.62 | +43% |
| CAT | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $25,037 | +1.3% | $735.64 | $514.95 | +43% |
| VRT | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $24,997 | +1.2% | $214.75 | $150.32 | +43% |
| BLDR | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $24,992 | -0.0% | $53.68 | $37.58 | +43% |
| ARES | 2026-10-15 | 1 | $24,965 | +1.0% | $114.03 | $79.82 | +43% |
| AXON | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $24,842 | -0.6% | $417.19 | $296.02 | +41% |
| FER | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $24,354 | -2.6% | $48.86 | $35.39 | +38% |
| MGM | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $24,343 | -2.6% | $29.48 | $21.18 | +39% |
| KKR | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $24,214 | -3.1% | $87.63 | $64.06 | +37% |
| MOS | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $23,903 | -4.4% | $18.95 | $13.87 | +37% |
| ALB | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $23,818 | -4.7% | $98.18 | $72.10 | +36% |
| STX | 2026-10-14 | 2 | $23,439 | -5.8% | $690.81 | $513.13 | +35% |
| ARE | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $23,191 | -7.2% | $42.34 | $31.93 | +33% |
| AKAM | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $22,528 | -9.9% | $92.32 | $74.86 | +23% |
| WDC | 2026-10-09 | 5 | $22,415 | -10.3% | $356.45 | $278.15 | +28% |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | SPY | Cash | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | $1,006,975 | +0.7% | -0.3% | 10% | 36 |
| Bought 4: AVGO, CRWV, RKLB, JBL | |||||
| 2026-10-14 | $988,438 | -1.2% | -0.6% | 35% | 26 |
| Bought 10: CAT, APP, VRT, BX, F, LEN, MLM, FLEX, ARES, NVR | |||||
| 2026-10-13 | $995,364 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 19 |
| Bought 7: STX, HWM, CRH, CPRT, DPZ, LII, HII | |||||
| 2026-10-12 | $995,418 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 19 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-09 | $998,490 | -0.2% | +0.6% | 58% | 17 |
| Bought 2: TMUS, CHTR | |||||
| 2026-10-08 | $1,000,000 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | 0 |
| Bought 17: WDC, BSX, CMCSA, AKAM, LULU, AXON, KKR, LHX, ALB, LVS, MOS, WYNN, MGM, BLDR, PNR, FER, ARE | |||||
How much to trust it (research update 2026-10-15): on survivorship-free data the rules beat SPY in 2016-2026 (about 17.5% vs 15% a year, total return) but lost to it in 2005-2014 (3.5% vs 5.5% a year, price only; -50% in 2008 vs SPY -38%, worst fall -66%). The edge so far comes from fast V-shaped rebounds in big stocks (2020, 2025); treat it as an unproven bet on that kind of market.
Shadow book (test)
Same signals and rules; when there are more signals than cash or slots, signals after an 8%+ drop with no SEC filing (no company news) get cash first, signals after an earnings drop last (research 2016-26: median 60 days after the signal +19.9% vs +3.9%). Test for 12 months; adopted only if it ends >= 2 points ahead with no worse drawdown.
Shadow account
$1,006,975
vs real book
+0.00%
Shadow max drawdown
-1.1%
Holds that the real book does not: none · real book only: none · next-open buys: CRWV, AVGO, RKLB, JBL · today's signals ranked up/down: STX (no-news crash), WDC (no-news crash), CRWV (no-news crash), AKAM (no-news crash), JBL (earnings drop)
Backtested rule set run as a paper portfolio. Data: Yahoo Finance daily bars; index membership point-in-time. Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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