Capitulation strategy - paper portfolio - 2026-10-14 update
📌 Snapshot of the Oct 14, 2026 update (orders for the next open). Always-current page with the full portfolio and daily log →
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-14 · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$988,438
Since start
-1.2%
SPY since start
-0.6%
Cash
35%
Positions
26 / 40
Closed trades
0
Rules (exp11): started 2026-10-08 with $1,000,000. Buy any S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100 stock that makes a new 60-day low while 30%+ below its 52-week high, at the next open, 2.5% of the account per stock, max 40, biggest by dollar volume first. Sell at the next open after a close 30% below the highest close since purchase.
Orders for the next open
Buy - 10 of 18 signals
| Ticker | Close | vs 52w high |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | $748.98 | -30% |
| APP | $262.19 | -64% |
| VRT | $222.83 | -41% |
| BX | $106.21 | -36% |
| F | $12.05 | -32% |
| LEN | $73.53 | -45% |
| MLM | $471.10 | -34% |
| FLEX | $100.35 | -40% |
| ARES | $112.49 | -38% |
| NVR | $5,733.12 | -30% |
Sell: none
Open positions (26)
| Ticker | Entry | Days | Value | Return | Last | Stop | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 2026-10-12 | 3 | $26,316 | +5.4% | $157.79 | $110.45 | +43% |
| BSX | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $25,510 | +2.0% | $43.00 | $30.69 | +40% |
| LVS | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $25,343 | +1.4% | $37.02 | $25.93 | +43% |
| LULU | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $25,313 | +1.3% | $94.09 | $66.26 | +42% |
| HII | 2026-10-14 | 1 | $25,305 | +1.7% | $264.53 | $185.17 | +43% |
| CHTR | 2026-10-12 | 3 | $25,223 | +1.0% | $105.14 | $74.86 | +40% |
| CMCSA | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $25,179 | +0.7% | $21.05 | $14.73 | +43% |
| LII | 2026-10-14 | 1 | $25,149 | +1.1% | $348.84 | $244.19 | +43% |
| LHX | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $25,040 | +0.2% | $237.50 | $166.77 | +42% |
| FER | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $25,017 | +0.1% | $50.19 | $35.39 | +42% |
| DPZ | 2026-10-14 | 1 | $24,938 | +0.2% | $295.89 | $207.12 | +43% |
| HWM | 2026-10-14 | 1 | $24,935 | +0.2% | $217.54 | $152.28 | +43% |
| PNR | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $24,930 | -0.3% | $52.11 | $37.08 | +41% |
| CPRT | 2026-10-14 | 1 | $24,910 | +0.1% | $26.27 | $18.39 | +43% |
| CRH | 2026-10-14 | 1 | $24,753 | -0.5% | $79.20 | $55.71 | +42% |
| WYNN | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $24,386 | -2.5% | $73.73 | $52.99 | +39% |
| AXON | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $24,320 | -2.7% | $408.42 | $296.02 | +38% |
| STX | 2026-10-14 | 1 | $24,146 | -3.0% | $713.54 | $514.50 | +39% |
| MOS | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $23,978 | -4.1% | $19.01 | $13.87 | +37% |
| MGM | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $23,914 | -4.3% | $28.96 | $21.18 | +37% |
| ALB | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $23,767 | -4.9% | $97.97 | $72.10 | +36% |
| KKR | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $23,653 | -5.4% | $85.60 | $64.06 | +34% |
| BLDR | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $23,521 | -5.9% | $50.52 | $37.57 | +34% |
| WDC | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $22,897 | -8.4% | $364.10 | $278.15 | +31% |
| ARE | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $22,731 | -9.1% | $41.50 | $31.93 | +30% |
| AKAM | 2026-10-09 | 4 | $22,379 | -10.5% | $91.71 | $74.86 | +23% |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | SPY | Cash | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | $988,438 | -1.2% | -0.6% | 35% | 26 |
| Bought 10: CAT, APP, VRT, BX, F, LEN, MLM, FLEX, ARES, NVR | |||||
| 2026-10-13 | $995,364 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 19 |
| Bought 7: STX, HWM, CRH, CPRT, DPZ, LII, HII | |||||
| 2026-10-12 | $995,418 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 19 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-09 | $998,490 | -0.2% | +0.6% | 58% | 17 |
| Bought 2: TMUS, CHTR | |||||
| 2026-10-08 | $1,000,000 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | 0 |
| Bought 17: WDC, BSX, CMCSA, AKAM, LULU, AXON, KKR, LHX, ALB, LVS, MOS, WYNN, MGM, BLDR, PNR, FER, ARE | |||||
Shadow book (test)
Same signals and rules; when there are more signals than cash or slots, signals after an 8%+ drop with no SEC filing (no company news) get cash first, signals after an earnings drop last (research 2016-26: median 60 days after the signal +19.9% vs +3.9%). Test for 12 months; adopted only if it ends >= 2 points ahead with no worse drawdown.
Shadow account
$988,438
vs real book
+0.00%
Shadow max drawdown
-1.2%
Holds that the real book does not: none · real book only: none · next-open buys: CAT, APP, VRT, BX, F, LEN, MLM, FLEX, ARES, NVR · today's signals ranked up/down: AKAM (no-news crash)
Backtested rule set run as a paper portfolio. Data: Yahoo Finance daily bars; index membership point-in-time. Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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