Capitulation strategy - paper portfolio - 2026-10-13 update
📌 Snapshot of the Oct 13, 2026 update (orders for the next open). Always-current page with the full portfolio and daily log →
Updated after the US close of 2026-10-13 · paper trading only, not investment advice
Account value
$995,364
Since start
-0.5%
SPY since start
+0.5%
Cash
53%
Positions
19 / 40
Closed trades
0
Rules (exp11): started 2026-10-08 with $1,000,000. Buy any S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100 stock that makes a new 60-day low while 30%+ below its 52-week high, at the next open, 2.5% of the account per stock, max 40, biggest by dollar volume first. Sell at the next open after a close 30% below the highest close since purchase.
Orders for the next open
Buy - 7 of 12 signals
| Ticker | Close | vs 52w high |
|---|---|---|
| STX | $747.20 | -35% |
| HWM | $216.84 | -30% |
| CRH | $80.14 | -39% |
| CPRT | $26.37 | -43% |
| DPZ | $296.10 | -33% |
| LII | $350.13 | -40% |
| HII | $257.84 | -44% |
Sell: none
Open positions (19)
| Ticker | Entry | Days | Value | Return | Last | Stop | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSX | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $25,693 | +2.8% | $43.31 | $30.69 | +41% |
| CHTR | 2026-10-12 | 2 | $25,657 | +2.8% | $106.95 | $74.86 | +43% |
| TMUS | 2026-10-12 | 2 | $25,639 | +2.7% | $153.73 | $107.61 | +43% |
| LULU | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $25,380 | +1.5% | $94.34 | $66.26 | +42% |
| LVS | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $25,357 | +1.4% | $37.04 | $25.93 | +43% |
| PNR | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $25,342 | +1.4% | $52.97 | $37.08 | +43% |
| FER | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $25,202 | +0.8% | $50.56 | $35.39 | +43% |
| WYNN | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $25,035 | +0.1% | $75.69 | $52.99 | +43% |
| CMCSA | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,976 | -0.1% | $20.88 | $14.62 | +43% |
| LHX | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,747 | -1.0% | $234.72 | $166.77 | +41% |
| AXON | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,614 | -1.5% | $413.35 | $296.02 | +40% |
| AKAM | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,385 | -2.5% | $99.93 | $74.86 | +33% |
| MGM | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,277 | -2.9% | $29.40 | $21.18 | +39% |
| MOS | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,193 | -3.2% | $19.18 | $13.87 | +38% |
| KKR | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,084 | -3.7% | $87.16 | $64.06 | +36% |
| BLDR | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,075 | -3.7% | $51.71 | $37.57 | +38% |
| ARE | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $24,002 | -4.0% | $43.82 | $31.93 | +37% |
| WDC | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $23,941 | -4.2% | $380.71 | $278.15 | +37% |
| ALB | 2026-10-09 | 3 | $23,690 | -5.2% | $97.65 | $72.10 | +35% |
Daily log
| US close | Account | Return | SPY | Cash | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | $995,364 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 19 |
| Bought 7: STX, HWM, CRH, CPRT, DPZ, LII, HII | |||||
| 2026-10-12 | $995,418 | -0.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 19 |
| No trades | |||||
| 2026-10-09 | $998,490 | -0.2% | +0.6% | 58% | 17 |
| Bought 2: TMUS, CHTR | |||||
| 2026-10-08 | $1,000,000 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 100% | 0 |
| Bought 17: WDC, BSX, CMCSA, AKAM, LULU, AXON, KKR, LHX, ALB, LVS, MOS, WYNN, MGM, BLDR, PNR, FER, ARE | |||||
Shadow book (test)
Same signals and rules; when there are more signals than cash or slots, signals after an 8%+ drop with no SEC filing (no company news) get cash first, signals after an earnings drop last (research 2016-26: median 60 days after the signal +19.9% vs +3.9%). Test for 12 months; adopted only if it ends >= 2 points ahead with no worse drawdown.
Shadow account
$995,364
vs real book
+0.00%
Shadow max drawdown
-0.5%
Holds that the real book does not: none · real book only: none · next-open buys: STX, HWM, CRH, CPRT, DPZ, LII, HII · today's signals ranked up/down: STX (no-news crash), WDC (no-news crash)
Backtested rule set run as a paper portfolio. Data: Yahoo Finance daily bars; index membership point-in-time. Not investment advice.
No redactions applied.
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